Published on: 2026-07-01
Source: Central Bank of Russia – Central Bank of Russia –
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Materialreflects the main points of the discussion on the economy, inflation, monetary and external conditions, as well as options for decisions on the key rate.
The main topics were the assessment of sustainable price growth, factors of economic and credit activity, as well as inflationary risks from the budget and the fuel market.
In April–May, not only did the current pace of price growth decrease, but many indicators of persistent inflation also declined. For some discussion participants, this was sufficient evidence that it would continue to slow under the influence of tight monetary policy. According to others, it is still too early to draw a definitive conclusion that the indicators of persistent inflation will continue to decline, as in recent months they have been influenced by strong but temporary disinflationary factors.
Participants agreed that pro-inflationary risks have increased. This is due both to a more significant fiscal impulse and to a temporary reduction in motor fuel production.
Monetary conditions eased but remained tight. Corporate and retail lending accelerated significantly in April – May. Participants had varying assessments of this dynamic: it could have been either a correction after weak figures at the beginning of the year or a sign of a more sustained recovery in demand.
Overall, the economy grew at a moderate pace in the first half of the year. The improvement in performance in the second quarter offset the decline in economic activity at the beginning of the year.
As a result of the discussion, the key rate was reduced by 25 basis points to 14.25% per annum. This decision took into account both the slowdown in inflationary pressure and the increased pro-inflationary risks. The Bank of Russia will assess the advisability of further reducing the key rate at upcoming meetings depending on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown, the dynamics of inflation expectations, as well as the assessment of risks from domestic and external conditions.
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