WHO – On the Phenomenon of El Niño and the Risk of New Climate Shocks

June 2, 2026 Climate and environment

Experts warn: El Niño is capable of intensifying global warming, increasing the risk of extreme heat, drought, heavy precipitation, and other dangerous weather phenomena. Against the backdrop of already record warmth in recent years, its consequences may turn out to be especially noticeable.

The cause of the changes was unusually warm waters in the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean. Observations show that the ocean surface temperature in key areas is gradually approaching threshold values characteristic of El Niño. At the same time, a significant heat reserve has accumulated in the subsurface layer of the ocean — the temperature there exceeds the norm by approximately six degrees Celsius, which additionally fuels the warming process of the surface.

UN Secretary-GeneralAntónio Guterrescalled to consider the development of El Niño as an emergency climate warning.

“El Niño conditions add fuel to the fire of global warming,” he stated in a video message. According to him, the consequences will be felt faster and more widely than before, and an effective response requires accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources, protecting the most vulnerable population groups, and developing early warning systems.

What is El Niño and why is it feared?

This is a natural climatic phenomenon that occurs as a result of the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It usually develops once every two to seven years and lasts about a year. However, its influence is felt far beyond the limits of the Pacific Ocean – temperature regimes and precipitation patterns change almost all over the world.

According to WHO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, the current situation requires increased readiness.

“We necessarily need to prepare for a potentially very strong El Niño phenomenon, which will intensify droughts and heavy rains, as well as increase the risk of heat waves both on land and in the ocean,” he emphasized. Saulo recalled that the previous El Niño in 2023-2024 was among the five strongest in the entire observation history and became one of the factors for the record global temperatures of 2024.

Although each El Niño event develops according to its own scenario, there are typical consequences. In the southern part of South America, in the southern USA, in certain areas of the African Horn and Central Asia, an increase in precipitation is often observed. At the same time, Central America, northern South America, countries of the Caribbean basin, Australia, Indonesia, and some areas of southern Asia often face drier conditions.

The additional seasonal forecast by the WMO shows another alarming trend: from June to August, temperatures above normal are expected in almost all regions of the world. This may increase heat stress, accelerate the development of droughts, and raise the likelihood of extreme weather events — from heavy rains and floods to prolonged heat periods.

At the same time, scientists emphasize: there is no evidence that climate change makes El Niño more frequent or stronger. However, global warming may amplify its effects – warmer oceans and atmosphere create additional conditions for extreme weather.

Readiness for catastrophes

According to the WMO assessment, modern seasonal forecasts give countries the opportunity to prepare in advance for possible shocks – from protecting agriculture and water supply systems to preventing humanitarian crises. And it is precisely now, specialists believe, that the time to make decisions is, not to wait until the consequences become irreversible.