Published on: 2026-04-01
Source: Central Bank of Russia – Central Bank of Russia –
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Materialreflects the main points of the discussion about the situation in the economy, inflation, monetary-credit and external conditions, as well as options for the decision on the key rate.
The current price growth in February noticeably slowed down after acceleration in January. The VAT increase has generally already been transferred to prices. At the same time, inflation in the first quarter of 2026 is forming below the February estimates of the Bank of Russia due to weaker consumer activity and more moderate price growth on certain goods (primarily fruit and vegetable products) than expected. According to the assessments of most discussion participants, the indicators of sustainable price growth in January – February, excluding the VAT contribution, settled in the range of 4–5% on an annualized basis.
Monetary and credit conditions have eased somewhat but remain tight. According to preliminary data, economic activity at the beginning of the year slowed down. In the opinion of the majority of participants, the demand overheating is decreasing faster than was assumed in the February forecast. This creates room for lowering the key rate. At the same time, the increased uncertainty, associated with external conditions and budget policy, requires caution.
As a result of the discussion, the key rate was lowered by 50 basis points to 15.00% per annum. The Bank of Russia will assess the advisability of further lowering the key rate at the next meeting, depending on the stability of the inflation slowdown, inflation expectations dynamics, and also on the assessment of risks from external and internal conditions.
According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the ongoing monetary credit policy, the annual inflation will decrease to 4.5–5.5% in 2026. Stable inflation will settle around 4% in the second half of 2026. In 2027 and beyond, annual inflation will align with the target.
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