Published on: 2026-09-11
Source: Central Bank of Russia – Central Bank of Russia –
An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
On September 11, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided to maintain key rate at a rate of 14.00% per annum. The economy as a whole is growing at a moderate pace in Q3 2026. Current price pressure has significantly intensified in recent months. According to the Bank of Russia’s estimate, the sustained price growth accelerated to 5–6% on an annualized basis, primarily due to the impact of a temporary reduction in production capacity in certain sectors. As these effects subside and with restrained aggregate demand growth, the decline in underlying inflation will resume.
The Bank of Russia will make further decisions on the key interest rate depending on the dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations, as well as on the assessment of risks from internal and external conditions. In the baseline scenario, taking into account the ongoing monetary policy, annual inflation will be 6.0–7.0% in 2026, return to 4.0% in 2027, and remain at the target level thereafter.
In July current price growth seasonally adjusted stood at 11.6% annualized after 5.3% on average in 2Q26. The analogous core inflation indicator rose to 7.0% from 4.6% on average in the previous quarter. Price dynamics in recent months were significantly influenced by volatile items. These include motor fuel and fruit and vegetable products. The increase in motor fuel prices also appeared in the dynamics of persistent inflation. The range of its estimates was raised to 5–6% annualized. Annual inflation, as of the estimate on September 7, was 6.3%.
Inflation expectations among the public, businesses, and financial market participants have changed in different directions. At the same time, they remain elevated, which may hinder a sustainable slowdown in inflation.
According to operational data, in 3k26 economy is growing at a moderate pace. Consumer demand growth is slowing, but remains elevated. Investment activity continues to recover compared to the levels at the beginning of the year.
Tension in the labor market is gradually easing. According to surveys, the shortage of personnel continues to decrease. Wage growth is slowing down and gradually aligning with labor productivity growth. However, the gap in their dynamics remains significant. Unemployment is near historical lows but has increased slightly in recent months.
Monetary and credit conditions are assessed as moderately tight. Interest rates have changed in different directions across various segments of the financial market. Taking into account the dynamics of inflation expectations, overall monetary policy conditions in real terms have somewhat eased. Non-price terms of bank lending remain tight.
Credit activity in recent months has been elevated, primarily due to the corporate segment. The retail loan portfolio grew moderately. The propensity of households to save has somewhat decreased but remains high.
Proinflationary risks have grown and prevail over disinflationary ones in the medium term. The main pro-inflationary risks are associated with a mismatch in demand and supply in the case of higher domestic demand and a more prolonged withdrawal of production capacities in certain sectors. Elevated inflation expectations may intensify the pass-through of costs into prices. Pro-inflationary risks persist, related to a prolonged period of wage growth exceeding labor productivity growth, as well as to the deterioration of global economic prospects and an increase in price pressure worldwide amid geopolitical tensions. Disinflationary risks are associated with a more significant slowdown in domestic demand.
The Bank of Russia’s July baseline scenario assumes a gradual reduction of the structural primary budget deficit to zero by 2029. The parameters of budget policy, including the trajectory of returning to a zero structural balance, will be additionally detailed in the October forecast after the Government submits new budget projections for the medium term to the State Duma. If these projections imply a higher structural primary budget deficit, a tighter monetary policy than in the baseline scenario may be required.
September 23, 2026 The Bank of Russia will publish a Summary of the key rate discussion.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia’s Board of Directors, at which the issue of the key rate level will be discussed, is scheduled for October 23, 2026. The time of publication of the press release about the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia and the medium-term forecast is 13:30 Moscow time.
When using the material, a reference to the Press Service of the Bank of Russia is mandatory.
11.09.2026 13:30:00
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