Published on: 2026-08-01
Source: United Nations – United Nations –
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July 31, 2026 Climate and Environment
The planet is entering a period of unprecedented heat, and the intensifying El Niño phenomenon could lead to new temperature records in the coming months. This was stated by UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who called on governments to accelerate measures to protect populations and abandon plans for further expansion of fossil fuel use.
Speaking on Friday to journalists at the UN headquarters in New York, the UN chief emphasized that the world is facing several interconnected crises simultaneously, with climate change continuing to accelerate rapidly.
“This is only the prelude”
According to the Secretary-General, two months ago he warned about the approach of El Niño, and today its consequences are felt worldwide.
“We have already endured a summer of extreme weather events: record-breaking waves of anomalous heat, apocalyptic wildfires raging in Spain, France, and far beyond, and thousands of human lives lost to this exhausting heat. In addition, record sea surface temperatures of the World’s oceans were recorded in June and July,” Guterres stated.
© Adobe Stock/Arafat A firefighter inspects the aftermath of a forest fire in southern France.
“However, according to the latest scientific data, this is only a prelude. New forecasts, published today by the World Meteorological Organization, paint a troubling picture of what to expect from August to October,” he continued.
According to scientists, the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean, which determines the development of El Niño, has never before been so high at such an early stage of its formation—and continues to rise. According to forecasts, air temperatures over almost all land areas will be above the climate norm until October.
Droughts and extreme heat
The Secretary-General noted that El Niño affects not only temperature but also precipitation patterns. According to him, the monsoon season in India is already significantly weaker than usual, and forecasts indicate a further deterioration of the situation in the region.
“The verdict is clear: the climate crisis is rapidly gaining momentum,” said Guterres.
According to the UN chief, extreme heat has long been considered a “silent killer,” but even this description does not reflect the scale of the problem, as many deaths related to exposure to high temperatures are officially unrecorded.
Behind the statistics lie real human tragedies: families living in unsafe conditions, people forced to choose between health and income, children who cannot study. Hospitals, energy systems, and transport infrastructure are overloaded. At the same time, the consequences of extreme heat are felt most acutely by those who have contributed the least to climate change, emphasized the Secretary-General.
Four priority areas
Guterres reminded that two years ago he issued a Global Call to Action in response to extreme heat. Since then, many countries have improved forecasting and early warning systems, and over 250 cities have joined the “Beat the Heat” initiative and adopted corresponding action plans.
© Adobe Stock/Mazur Travel The thermometer in the city of Bilbao, Spain, shows 50 degrees Celsius.
However, according to the head of the UN, the rate of warming is outpacing the measures being taken.
The Secretary-General called for focusing efforts on four areas: protecting people through action plans and early warning systems, ensuring safe working conditions, adapting cities and infrastructure to extreme heat, and addressing the root cause of the climate crisis.
Fossil fuel phase-out
According to the UN chief, the world still pays too little attention to the main cause of increasing heat waves, droughts, and wildfires – the continued use of fossil fuels. He warned that every new coal, oil, or gas extraction project makes future heat waves even more dangerous.
At the same time, some governments, Guterres noted, still plan to extract more than twice the amount of fossil fuels by 2030 than is allowed under the scenario of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
“Extreme heat is not a threat of the future. It has already arrived. It is becoming increasingly dangerous. And if we do not take measures to protect people and eliminate the root causes of the crisis, the consequences will only worsen,” stated the Secretary-General.
Strengthening of the powerful El Niño phenomenon
The new WMO Monthly Global Seasonal Climate Bulletin indicates that the El Niño phenomenon will continue to steadily strengthen and reach high intensity during the period from August to October 2026. Seasonal anomalies of the average sea surface temperature are expected to exceed 2.9 degrees Celsius in key monitoring areas. Additionally, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (a climate pattern where the western part of the Indian Ocean becomes warmer than average and the eastern part cooler) is forecast. Together, these factors may intensify phenomena such as droughts, floods, and wildfires. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean are also expected to remain above average.
“El Niño is one of the most closely monitored climate phenomena in the world. But forecasts alone do not prevent hazardous events, people do. The El Niño phenomenon, developing against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean warming and temperature rise, provides governments and communities with the opportunity to anticipate risks and act before the consequences manifest. The decisions we make today will affect the outcomes we experience tomorrow,” said WMO Chief Celeste Saulo.
Global consequences
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. It is one of the most powerful factors determining interannual climate variability. This natural climate pattern is characterized by sea surface temperatures above average in the central and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
© WFP/G. Vivacqua Drought-affected maize harvest in Zambia.
El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last from nine to twelve months. The phenomenon often begins to develop between March and June, reaches peak intensity between November and February, and has the strongest impact during the year following its onset.
The consequences of El Niño vary depending on its intensity, duration, season, and interaction with other factors.
Regional forecasts
According to the WMO bulletin, the temperature is highly likely to exceed average levels over most of the Earth’s land surface. The most evident signs of this trend are observed throughout Africa, in southern Europe, on the Arabian Peninsula and the Indian subcontinent, in East Asia, Central America, the Caribbean basin, and over much of South America and New Zealand.
The precipitation forecast for the period from August to October 2026 shows characteristics of a high-intensity El Niño event. Wetter than usual conditions are expected in the Greater Horn of Africa region, parts of Central Asia, Southern Europe, as well as in the western part of North America and the southeastern part of South America. Conversely, drier than usual conditions are more likely on the Indian subcontinent, in southern and eastern Australia, in the southern part of Central America and some areas of the Caribbean Basin, as well as in the northwest of South America and Northern Europe.
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