Published on: 2026-07-31
Source: People’s Republic of China — Translation
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Geneva, July 31 /Xinhua/ — Global merchandise trade growth in the first quarter of 2026 exceeded expectations, as a sharp increase in trade of electronic components related to artificial intelligence (AI) offset the negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East. This is according to data published on Friday by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
According to data, the seasonally adjusted volume of global merchandise trade in the first quarter of this year increased by 1.9 percent compared to the previous quarter and by 3.2 percent year-on-year.
In value terms, the volume of world merchandise trade increased by 2 percent compared to the previous quarter and by 11 percent compared to the same quarter of 2025.
Particular attention should be paid to the annual growth rates recorded in the first quarter of 2026, considering that trade growth in the first quarter of 2025 was largely driven by the preemptive increase in imports in North America amid the expected rise in customs duties there.
Active trading of electronic components related to AI more than compensated for the negative consequences of the start of the war in the Middle East, including supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and the slowdown in GDP growth in countries that are net fuel importers due to rising energy prices.
Although specific data on the volumes of global trade in products powering AI are absent, their value in dollar terms increased by more than 40 percent year over year in the first quarter.
The conflict dealt a severe blow to goods trade in the Middle East. In the first quarter, seasonally adjusted export and import volumes in the region decreased by 9.7% and 11.9%, respectively, year-on-year, with an even sharper decline expected in the second quarter.
At the same time, investment expenses related to AI supported trade volumes in Asia in the first quarter. Seasonally adjusted exports and imports in Asia increased by 12.9 percent and 14.6 percent, respectively, year on year. A significant portion of the trade expansion in Asia was provided by intraregional turnover of goods for AI.
In North America, exports in the first quarter increased by 7.0 percent year-on-year, while imports decreased by 10.7 percent compared to the same period last year.
The WTO expects that trade data for the next quarter will more fully reflect disruptions in supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
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