Published on: 2026-10-21
Source: United Nations – United Nations –
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October 21, 2026 Climate and Environment
In order for the peak of global warming by mid-century not to exceed 1.7–1.8 degrees Celsius, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by 18 percent by 2030, by 45 percent by 2035, and by 69 percent by 2040 — compared to 2025 levels. These calculations are presented in the new UNEP Emissions Gap Report “Turning Point” by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). They are based on a scenario in which the exceedance of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels will be minimized.
“Exceeding the temperature threshold is not a capitulation. We can still make it as small and as short as possible – and return the temperature to below the 1.5-degree mark by the end of the century,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in his message on the occasion of the report’s release.
Consequences of the climate crisis
UNEP experts note that there are now more opportunities than ever to accelerate action in this area. Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been a boom in the renewable energy sector, the overall supply of energy derived from coal and oil has grown more slowly than predicted, and climate policy has proven effective in reducing emissions in many regions.
“Every additional fraction of a degree and every additional year during which the temperature exceeds the 1.5-degree threshold increase climate risks and consequences, such as deadly floods, heat waves, and forest fires that have devastated many countries this year,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.
Forecasts are worsening
The report’s authors emphasize that if current trends continue, warming could reach 2.8 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. If all country-agreed targets (determined by nationally determined contributions – NDCs) are met and such efforts continue, warming will be limited to 2.6 degrees. These figures are worse than last year’s forecasts due to the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised assessments of historical emissions.
Successful measures to combat climate change
A return to the 1.5-degree level or lower is possible: there is increasing evidence that climate policy can lead to emissions reductions.
Thus, according to estimates, measures in the electric power sector allowed for an average emissions reduction of 9 percent, while the implementation of economic instruments, including carbon emissions trading systems and carbon taxes, led to emissions reductions averaging 5–13 percent across various sectors. Achieving the trajectory of minimally possible temperature threshold exceedance requires scaling up such achievements.
Renewable energy
As part of the first Global Stocktake (GST), countries agreed to triple renewable energy capacity and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, ensure the transition from fossil fuel use in energy systems, reduce greenhouse gas emissions other than CO₂, halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation, and take other measures. However, recent assessments of indicator changes show movement in the wrong direction.
The second GPI cycle can build on the results of the first, confirming priority areas of activity and expanding goals for 2035 and 2040, UNEP notes.
The good news is that since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, global renewable power capacity has grown three times faster than expected, and the deployment rates of solar photovoltaic power have increased sevenfold.
The expansion of tasks related to the transition from the use of fossil fuels in energy systems will require a global reduction in the share of coal, oil, and gas in the total energy supply by at least 55%, 15%, and 5% respectively by 2035 compared to 2025. By 2040, reductions of at least 75%, 30%, and 35% respectively will be necessary. By 2035, methane emissions must be at least 25% lower than 2025 levels, and by 2040, at least 40% lower.
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