Published on: 2026-10-12
Source: Official website of the State –
An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
The debate about the world facing hunger due to problems in the Black Sea flares up with enviable regularity: it was the same in 2022 and 2023. The discussed news greatly affects the markets, causing panic and price spikes. But let’s figure out: where is the real threat, and where is just another information noise.
The Black Sea is the main faucet, but not the only one
About 70% of Russian grain and 90% of Ukrainian grain traditionally left through Black Sea ports. For wheat, this is the most important route: four out of the five main buyers of Russian wheat — Egypt, Turkey, Israel, and Sudan — received the goods via this route. Redirecting to other directions is possible but more expensive. The East Siberian Railway is overloaded, there are fuel problems, the Baltic Sea route is on shaky ground — neighbors are already threatening restrictions. The Northern Sea Route remains, but it is a long-term bet.
At the same time, it is impossible to exclude a quarter of the global grain market from circulation. After inevitable volatility, the market will normalize. Panic is not a strategy.
Wheat prices react to news, not reality
Global wheat prices are extremely sensitive to informational noise. This explains the rise in quotes amid attacks on Black Sea infrastructure. But any tragedy eventually becomes routine. The market gets used to it — and prices have almost returned to May levels. This is classic: the sharpness of the event fades, leaving the balance of supply and demand.
Russia: third in production, first in export
In global wheat production, Russia ranks only third, behind China and India. But in exports, it is first, occupying at least a fifth of the global market. Ukraine supplied three times less in the 2025–2026 season. The main buyers of Ukrainian wheat are Egypt, Indonesia, and Algeria. Egypt, meanwhile, is the largest buyer of Russian grain. All of them are concentrated in Mediterranean and Caspian logistics routes, meaning supply problems will directly affect them.
China will not save
China is the leader in wheat production, but at the same time the third largest buyer of grain after Egypt and Indonesia. However, Russia is not the largest supplier to the Middle Kingdom. Yes, sales volumes there have increased sevenfold, but we are still only fifth after Canada, Australia, the USA, and Argentina. The eastern partner will not become a full-fledged alternative to the Black Sea markets.
Exports are falling, inventories are rising, desire is decreasing
Risks have increased logistics costs and reduced the attractiveness of wheat cultivation. High yields are putting pressure on domestic procurement prices. Russian wheat exports have decreased by 6.5 times, while stocks in storage are growing. To support farmers, the government may cancel export duties, which had already been reducing interest in exports.
For Russian agricultural producers, the issue of shifting priorities is becoming increasingly urgent — moving towards more profitable oilseed crops. The alternative is grain processing following the Turkish model: despite high wheat imports, Turkey is the world’s largest flour exporter. Maybe it’s time for us to earn not from raw grain, but from its processed form?
There will be no hunger, but changes will occur
We see two clear trends: a change in logistics routes and a shift from raw material exports to processing and high-margin crops. There will be no global hunger due to problems in the Black Sea — the market will adapt. But the structure of exports and the priorities of agricultural producers will change. Grain will not become gold, but its role in the economy will no longer be the same.
Author: Vladimir Stroyev, Rector of the State University of Management, Doctor of Economics, Professor
Subscribe to the Telegram channel “Our GUU” Publication date: 12.10.2026
Please note; This information is raw content obtained directly from the source. It is an accurate account of what the source claims and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.