Published on: 2026-08-25
Source: Central Bank of Russia – Central Bank of Russia –
An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
The stock market is currently experiencing a period of high volatility, which is reflected in investor sentiment. To minimize losses, they should more carefully assess risks, Olga Shishlyannikova, director of the investment financial intermediaries department at the Bank of Russia, said in an interview with Expert.
— In recent years, a whole series of unlikely risks have materialized in the Russian stock market. Doesn’t this turn the market into a casino?
— I do not agree that our market is like a casino. Yes, there were “black swans,” for example, the blocking of client assets in 2022, the introduction of sanctions against financial market participants. That was difficult to predict. But in other respects, many events are natural.
Our market is currently experiencing a difficult period. Investor sentiment is far from optimistic. And they have reasons for this. First, the geopolitical situation remains extremely tense. Second, inflation risks remain significant. In addition to the general macroeconomic conditions, technical factors also contribute to the market decline. In particular, the dividend gap or the forced closing of positions by retail investors who use leverage. When prices fall, such positions can be forcibly closed, temporarily intensifying the market downturn.
There are economic reasons why certain securities are falling in price. Our market is closed to foreign investments, many companies are forced to increase their debt, but they lack the capacity to service it. Some players are experiencing defaults. However, these companies are not from the top-tier list.
A casino is a series of chance events that have no causal connection with other events. You place a bet, spin the wheel—the ball lands somewhere, and that’s it. The market operates on entirely different principles; it has its own regularities that can be analyzed and calculated. But one must remember that the higher the promised return, the higher the investor’s risks. Therefore, if you carefully monitor what is happening in the economy and the activities of businesses, you can forecast potential developments.
— Due to the market decline, many have lost, but there are also those who have earned. What role does unequal access to information play in this?
— Information asymmetry, of course, exists. But it arises not so much because different categories of investors have unequal access to information. Rather, it is because not everyone knows how to analyze this information and draw the right conclusions.
Trading independently on the stock exchange is hard daily work. It only seems simple: what’s difficult about it? You come to the broker, place an order to buy securities — and that’s it. But what actually happens? Often, when an investor sees that a security is rising, they buy it at peak levels, as traders say, “at the highs.” Then it turns out the market is overheated, and the price starts to fall. The investor loses their nerve, sells it at low points, realizes losses, while the security corrects upwards — and the cycle repeats. When making decisions, an investor should be guided not by the immediate market trajectory, but by whether the market is overvaluing or undervaluing the fundamental value of the security. They should rely on the issuer’s financial performance, business strategy, and forecasts, and monitor corporate actions. This requires constant involvement, not just: today I watch the market, and tomorrow I get distracted by my own affairs and miss an important event.
Institutional investors differ in that they do this constantly and know how to respond to signals in a timely manner. Before investing funds in an asset, they carefully study all the information about the company, forecasting its development considering the economic situation. They do not give in to emotions or fall for advertising tricks, which is why they achieve better results. If a person is not ready to understand the world of investments as a whole and the situation with specific issuers, or does not have enough time for this, it is better to trust professional managers.
— Does the Central Bank see a problem in the fact that brokers tend to actively promote instruments that often cause losses for clients but are profitable for the brokers themselves?
— We closely monitor what and how brokers sell to their clients. Previously, there was a problem with dishonest sales, but since 2023 the number of complaints about misselling has halved, even though the market has simultaneously grown both in volume and in the number of clients. This indicates that our measures to combat dishonest practices are working effectively.
There are, of course, certain marketing tricks: in the apps, some brokers place the most attractive products for themselves in a prominent spot. Clients are unable to review the entire showcase and evaluate all positions, so they pay attention to what is highlighted more brightly. And purchasing such instruments does not always turn out to be a profitable deal for them.
Modern technologies, including AI, allow making offers to clients more personalized and to “put on the shelf” primarily those tools that suit this particular person taking into account their income, risk profile, and strategy. Many brokers act this way because long-term relationships with clients are important to them. Therefore, brokers help clients navigate the wide variety of tools, prepare analytical reviews, offer investment consulting, and conduct testing on knowledge of certain products.
— But this is more of a regulator’s requirement than their own initiative.
— In terms of testing — yes. But it also makes life easier for the brokers themselves: they understand which investors they are working with, making it easier for them to form, so to speak, product baskets for each category, including instruments with different levels of complexity and risk. Testing is a good thing in itself. To pass it, an investor must first acquire the necessary knowledge. We also required brokers to notify clients about possible risks. It’s similar to health warnings about the dangers of smoking on cigarette packs. You can pay attention or ignore them. But if an investor takes their decisions responsibly, then of course they will listen. Investments are always associated with risks. However, with a balanced approach, risks can be minimized, thereby protecting oneself from losses.
— You have launched a unified database of mutual investment funds (MIFs). For what purpose? Do you believe this will make life easier for retail investors?
— There are currently more than 400 different mutual funds for non-qualified investors on the market — open-ended, closed-end (closed mutual funds), with various strategies and different commission sizes. At some point, we thought there was no resource where one could compare all these funds, like deposits at aggregators. There are attempts to analyze individual segments, and that’s it. The reason is that not everyone has the opportunity to gather all available information about mutual funds scattered across different sources. And that’s when we came up with the idea to launch a special data showcase.
We have accumulated information about all funds available to non-qualified investors. The information was taken from trust management regulations as well as from their reports.
There is nothing secret in our database, nothing that cannot be found in the public domain; we have simply compiled all the information into one table. As a result, we have created a tool that allows you to compare mutual funds based on the same parameters, for example, by strategies, fee size, fund type.
Our database is imperfect while it is still a table, which is not so easy for an untrained person to understand. But, to be honest, we are making it not so much for retail investors as for market participants, so that they have the opportunity to create a quality product for clients based on our data and offer more convenient user interfaces.
The mutual fund showcase is published in test mode until the end of this year. And we hope that during this time aggregators will manage to implement the first convenient solutions. For example, to create filtering by specified parameters. They understand best what information a person needs to make a decision and what should be compared with what.
We expect this to only benefit the development of the mutual funds market. It will promote the development of competition. Small funds that show good returns and do not charge clients high fees will catch the attention of investors.
— Can real estate mutual funds replace Russians’ passion for saving in “concrete”?
— Real estate has always been considered one of the attractive investment instruments. But it requires a large initial investment. Mutual investment funds are a good opportunity to earn income related to real estate without having a lot of money.
The cost of a share is now minimal — from 1,000 rubles. Not long ago, if you recall, entering the market was expensive — 300,000 rubles. This was done intentionally: we wanted to protect investors with low income and savings from excessive risk. But later observations showed that the risks had been overestimated, and now you can enter with any amount.
The profitability of such funds depends on the chosen strategy: these can be properties that the fund rents out, or it can finance construction and then sell the finished spaces. Considering that real estate prices have increased, the investor most often ended up with a profit. Of course, this is assuming effective management.
It is important to consider that such funds are always closed-end mutual funds, whose main feature is the low liquidity of their shares compared to other mutual funds. Investment shares of such funds cannot be simply redeemed to get money, unlike in open-end mutual funds. This is due to the fact that the properties owned by the fund cannot be quickly sold at market price. However, management companies, understanding this, try to offer investors an alternative way to exit the fund, for example by selling shares on the exchange at market price. Some of these funds have already been admitted to exchange trading. We believe that the popularity of real estate closed-end mutual funds will only grow as monetary policy eases, but for now, both in terms of returns and popularity, they lag behind money market funds.
— Are you not concerned by the fact that money market funds have become almost as popular as bank deposits? Do you not see risks in this? Do you agree with the opinion of some politicians and even economists who say that this money is not working for the economy?
— Interest in deposits and money market funds grows during periods of high interest rates in the economy, which we have been observing over the past few years. But even with the decline of the key rate, money market funds, like deposits, remain in demand. They always have their fans.
As for the benefits of these tools for the economy, let’s understand: what is the money market? It is a market for short-term loans, allowing banks and companies to meet an immediate need for cash, such as covering a cash gap and fulfilling an obligation on time. Asset management companies lend unitholders’ funds through REPO operations. In simple terms, the fund’s money is lent for one or several days secured by highly reliable securities. The fund is paid interest for this, and the higher the interest, the higher the fund’s yield.
Does this benefit the economy? The answer is clear: if the economy needs short-term borrowed funds and this need is met by the money market, then this market is not useless. And deposits do not lie idle in banks, which use these funds to issue loans — essentially, they are investing in the economy.
But money market funds have an advantage over deposits — the ability to quickly exit the fund without losing the accumulated returns. Early closure of a deposit most often leads to the loss of already accrued interest. However, one must always remember that investments in mutual funds involve risk and their returns may fluctuate. And there is no insurance against this or guaranteed payments, unlike deposits.
— Using AI has become fashionable now. Is there still room in the market for a human investor if algorithms and AI agents do everything faster?
— When algorithmic trading appeared and showed good results, everyone thought that was it: people were no longer needed on the exchange. But that turned out not to be the case.
We understand that AI is the future. It will actively enter our lives and also the world of finance. But the question is how ready we are to fully switch to artificial intelligence and trust it.
My experience communicating with “Alisa” shows that she doesn’t know or can do everything. Once, I asked her to help set the clock on a new microwave. As a result, I had to figure it out myself from the manual. Models make mistakes and hallucinate far too often when solving the most ordinary household tasks. And many people are afraid to rely entirely on artificial intelligence, especially when it comes to money.
About two-thirds of financial organizations already use or plan to use AI in the near future. The companies that employ AI in their work admit that they still have to double-check everything it does.
We, in turn, monitor how companies apply it. We have developed a code of ethics for financial organizations. It is a set of guidelines designed to ensure the safe use of AI, data protection, and to improve the quality of services.
It must be acknowledged that AI significantly increases labor productivity by handling routine processes, but so far it does not at all relieve humans from intellectual work.
— Let’s move from investments to the topic of savings. I can’t help but ask about the Long-Term Savings Program (LSP). How has the Central Bank responded to the practice of pre-retirees and retirees using it as a high-yield term deposit?
— Credit must be given to the financial literacy of our people, who quickly calculated the benefits of the program. But there were not too many such people — about 330 thousand, and they withdrew about 10 billion rubles early from the program. In total, more than 13 million contracts have already been concluded for a total amount of more than 1 trillion rubles. Of course, we are interested in attracting young people to the program, and the benefits are primarily aimed at encouraging long-term savings rather than short-term ones.
We discussed this situation with the Ministry of Finance, it’s no secret. A draft law has already been submitted to the State Duma proposing that pre-retirees be able to withdraw co-financing after at least five years of participation in the PDS. We hope that the decision will be made by the end of 2026.
This provision will not have retroactive effect; it will apply to new program participants who sign a contract after the law comes into force. Let me remind you that if a participant in the PDS has already received co-financing once, they will no longer be able to use this preference when opening new contracts.
— Don’t you think that 15 years is too long a period for savings? Why should young people choose PDS for savings instead of another instrument? Especially considering there is such a wide variety on the market?
— You are right, there are currently many instruments on the market for different purposes and with varying investment horizons. Each has its advantages and disadvantages; there is no perfect product.
Why do we believe that using the PDS is convenient for saving both for buying a home and for children’s education or simply for creating a financial safety cushion, starting at any age? No other product offers such a wide range of benefits. It includes co-financing from the government — 36,000 rubles annually for 10 years, tax deductions, and a capital preservation guarantee of 2.8 million rubles — twice as much as with regular bank deposits. Moreover, for any amount beyond that, a full refund of the government funds received (co-financing) and the pension savings transferred to the PDS is guaranteed.
It must be said that NPFs earned quite well in 2025: the return on long-term savings programs ranged from 15.2 to 21.1% per annum. We obtained these figures by surveying 11 of the largest NPFs working with PDS. And this is significantly higher than last year’s inflation rate of 5.6%. The weighted average interest rates on deposits with terms over three years averaged 10% per annum during 2025. And this is without taking into account state co-financing and tax deductions, which undoubtedly increase the final income of citizens in the program. The accumulated return of NPFs for 2024–2025 ranges from 30 to 45%, which significantly exceeds the accumulated inflation over the same period — 15.6%.
Of course, it is difficult for young people to think about investments over such a long horizon; it is psychologically challenging to do so. But we would really like the number of young people participating in the program to increase. And it is gradually growing. We expect that over time the program will become popular among young people. Already, funds are adapting their programs for the 25–45 year old audience, emphasizing children’s education and home purchases, developing advantageous partnership offers, and promoting the program among bloggers and self-employed individuals.
— Has the issue of including insurance companies in the list of PSD operators been closed?
— During discussions with market participants, it became clear that insurance companies wishing to participate in managing PDS accounts find it more convenient to open their own subsidiary non-governmental pension funds. That is what they did. It turned out to be easier and less costly than creating unified operating conditions in this market for different organizations.
— What is your attitude towards allowing non-state pension funds (NPFs) to increase their share of stocks in their portfolio?
— We are not against funds investing more in stocks, but this decision should be made by the NPFs themselves, not dictated from above. Currently, we do have restrictions on the share of stocks in the portfolio at 40%, but starting January 1, 2027, they will cease to apply.
In practice, funds currently hold on average about 9% of stocks in their portfolios, although for some funds this share reaches up to 18%. They themselves, having analyzed the market situation, do not invest more money in equities. Funds are required to comply with the rule of five years without losses and to ensure their stability. For this, we constantly conduct stress testing. Even in the worst possible scenario, funds pass stress testing if the share of stocks in their portfolio does not exceed 35%. This is several times more than the actual share of stocks in the average fund.
— How do you assess the proposals to freeze the term of Individual Investment Accounts of the third type (IIA-3) at five years and not increase it further, but rather even reduce it to three years?
— This discussion is about tax benefits for investors, and we are convinced that any benefit must pursue a specific goal. The state should not distribute money for no reason. The benefits for three years for the first two types of IIS were needed to attract retail investors to the stock market. And this happened: people came to the market en masse.
Now the goal of the benefits is different — to stimulate not short-term savings and investments, but long-term ones. Therefore, we agreed with the market that initially the term of IIS-3 will be five years, and then gradually increase to ten years by 2032. From our point of view, persistent proposals to revise these rules are unfounded. Revising the term of IIS-3 will lead to unjustified arbitrage with other financial instruments for which tax benefits are granted only if the instruments are held for ten years (for example, PDS).
The argument that people do not want to open IIS-3 for a five-year term at all is refuted by the numbers. In 2025, inflows into IIS-3 exceeded 100 billion rubles. That’s a decent figure. Moreover, we see demand for this instrument even among clients with small contributions. And those who need short-term investments can always choose other financial instruments.
Sergey Bolotov, Expert
Please be advised; This information is raw content obtained directly from the source. It is an accurate report of what the source claims and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.