Published on: 2026-08-04
Source: United Nations – United Nations –
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August 4, 2026 Economic Development
Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have led to serious interruptions in the supply of energy carriers, fertilizers, and industrial raw materials, according to a new analytical review by the International Trade Centre (ITC). Although importing countries have begun seeking alternative suppliers, they have not yet been able to fully compensate for the losses.
According to the MTC, since the end of February, the reduction in commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the increase in transport and insurance costs, have affected trade flows far beyond the Persian Gulf region. Although efforts are being made to restore regular shipping, the volume of traffic remains significantly below normal levels.
Exports have sharply declined
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important maritime transport corridors in the world. About a quarter of the world’s sea oil shipments pass through it, a significant portion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, as well as approximately one third of the global urea exports.
Preliminary data for April 2026 indicate a significant reduction in exports from countries dependent on the Strait of Hormuz. The total volume of shipments for 12 key products decreased by 54 percent compared to April of the previous year. The sharpest declines were recorded in exports of liquefied natural gas (by 95 percent), urea (83 percent), methanol (80 percent), and ammonia (75 percent).
The largest absolute losses fell on the energy sector. Crude oil exports decreased by 28 million tons, petroleum products by 7.3 million tons, and LNG by 5.5 million tons. Experts note that disruptions affected not only the energy sector but also the supply of fertilizers, chemical products, plastics, and aluminum, disrupting the operation of a wide range of industries and production chains.
Importers are looking for new suppliers
The degree of impact of the crisis varied for different countries. It depended on the level of prior dependence on the region’s suppliers, availability of reserves, domestic demand, and the ability to quickly redirect imports.
Supplies from alternative sources increased in 10 out of the 12 studied commodity categories. The most significant growth in supply of liquefied butane and liquefied natural gas was provided by the USA, while China became an important additional supplier of ethylene and propylene polymers.
However, it was only possible to fully compensate for the reduction in imports from countries dependent on the Strait of Hormuz in two types of products – ammonia and polypropylene.
According to the ITC, this indicates that the process of trade reorientation has already begun, but in April it was still unable to fully replace the disrupted supplies. Some countries were likely forced to use accumulated stocks, strategic reserves, increase their own production, or reduce consumption.
Most vulnerable countries
The consequences were especially noticeable for countries historically dependent on supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. For instance, Japan, which previously received 91 percent of its imported crude oil from countries in the region, recorded a 64 percent decrease in total oil import volume.
Imports in the Republic of Korea decreased by 23 percent (with a dependence of 62 percent), and in Malaysia by 41 percent (with a dependence of 53 percent).
At the same time, Thailand increased oil imports by 62 percent, as refineries were able to quickly secure additional supplies from alternative sources.
The consequences can be long-lasting
The ITC warns that the economic consequences of the crisis may persist for a long time even after the restoration of normal shipping. According to the organization’s assessment, risks remain related to delivery delays, depletion of stocks, disruptions to shipping schedules, as well as high transportation and insurance costs.
At the same time, recent events indicate that the timelines for full normalization remain uncertain.
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