Published on: 2026-06-26
Source: Central Bank of Russia – Central Bank of Russia –
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The Bank of Russia has developed an econometric model that allows assessing the price difference between primary and secondary housing markets, taking into account the construction date of the building, real estate class, apartment area, and a number of other parameters. According to the regulator’s calculations, at the beginning of 2026 the gap amounted to 9% without considering renovation costs in resold new buildings. Taking these costs into account, the indicator increases to 18%.
At the same time, if we compare Rosstat’s data on the average price in the primary and secondary housing markets in the country as a whole, then at the end of Q1 2026 the difference was 52%. This is due to the fact that housing in new buildings is objectively of higher quality, and when calculating the average price of secondary housing, not only recently built houses are taken into account, but also housing in the old stock. In addition, in the new buildings market, the share of regions with more expensive housing (Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Krasnodar Krai, and others) is higher, which also increases the estimate of the price gap.To make it more accurate, it is necessary to compare prices for comparable housing or use model evaluations.
Analysis by the Bank of Russia confirms that the increased capital requirements for banks when issuing mortgages with an initial down payment of less than 20%, as well as direct restrictions on issuing such risky loans, are justified and cover the risks of a decline in the value of the housing under construction in case of its sale on the secondary market. At the same time, to protect against other risks, the regulator and banks can set requirements for the initial down payment at a higher level if necessary.
Read more in the analytical note“Assessment of the price gap between the primary and secondary housing markets of the Russian Federation”.
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