Published on: 2026-06-26
Source: Central Bank of Russia – Central Bank of Russia –
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The second issue in 2026 of the Bank of Russia scientific journal “Money and Credit” has been published. AuthorsThis issueThey describe how to identify the phases of the business cycle based on enterprise survey data and how patents are related to investment activity; they reveal the causes of the price gap between new buildings and secondary housing and propose the building of a yield curve for Russian government bonds (OFZ), denominated in yuan.
Patents – forerunners of investments
Indicators of companies’ innovation activity can contain important information about the future dynamics of investments, especially in conditions where the role of technologically complex and science-intensive industries in the economy is growing. Zhanna Shuvalova (Bank of Russia), comparing the accuracy of investment forecasts in fixed capital using various machine learning models,придет к выводу: if patent information is added to the models, investment forecasts become noticeably more accurate. In other words, innovations act as an early indicator of economic development.
How to understand at an early stage whether the economy is overheating or cooling down
For early detection of signs of overheating or, conversely, cooling of the economy, reliable indicators are needed. Valeria Zvereva and her co-authors from the Bank of Russiausedfor this, surveys of enterprises conducted by the regulator. It turned out that the best indicators signaling the turning point of the business cycle are two: assessments of actual demand by enterprises, as well as business climate indicators, which, when calculated, take into account not only demand assessments but also assessments of production dynamics.
Why new buildings are more expensive than secondary ones
The price gap between primary and secondary housing is significant not only for buyers. A skew in prices in favor of new buildings increases the risks of the mortgage market, since if the borrower is forced to sell an apartment purchased on the primary market, its value in the secondary market may be less than the remaining debt on the loan. Olga Klachkova (M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University) and her co-authorsanalyze, what factors influence the price gap in Russian regions. They find that the monopolization of the regional new-build market and the preferential “Family Mortgage” program contribute most significantly. On the other hand, the presence of competition between banks helps to smooth prices.
Yuan Futures: how to measure liquidity if there is little data
In recent years, a new instrument has appeared in the Russian financial market — OFZs denominated in yuan. There arose a need for an instrument that allows investors to assess investment liquidity. But traditional methods of building the liquidity curve for OFZs denominated in yuan are inapplicable, since there are too few issuances. Mikhail Makushkin (NIU “Higher School of Economics”)offersused to construct a model default curve, in which, alongside data on OFZ, information about corporate bond issuance in yuan is used: this way a realistic picture can be obtained.
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