Published on: 2026-06-19
Source: Central Bank of Russia – Central Bank of Russia –
An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
The Board of Directors of Bank Rossii on June 19, 2026, decided to lower key bet at 25 b.p., up to 14.25% per annum. Economic growth continues at a moderate pace after a temporary decline at the beginning of the year. Stable price growth, according to the Bank of Russia, has slightly decreased, but overall remains in the range of 4–5% annually. In recent months, credit growth has accelerated. Fiscal policy over the three-year horizon will be more stimulating than previously expected. This may require a higher trajectory of the key interest rate than was laid out in the April baseline scenario.
The Bank of Russia will assess the advisability of further lowering the key rate at the nearest meeting depending on the stability of the slowdown in inflation, the dynamics of inflation expectations, as well as on the assessment of risks from domestic and external conditions. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, taking into account the conducted monetary policy, the annual inflation rate will decrease to 4.5–5.5% in 2026. Stable inflation will settle near 4% in the second half of 2026. In 2027 and beyond, the annual inflation rate will align with the target.
In April – Maycurrent price growthWith a seasonal adjustment, it slowed on average to 2.1% per year after 8.7% in the first quarter of 2026. A similar indicator of core inflation averaged 4.2% after 6.2% in the previous quarter. Volatile items significantly influenced price dynamics during this period. In June, they may lead to an acceleration of current price growth rates. The estimate of stable inflation has decreased somewhat in recent months but still remains in the range of 4–5% per year, while annual inflation as of June 15 was 5.6%.
Inflation expectations of the population and business have decreased, but overall remain at an elevated level. This may hinder a sustainable slowdown in inflation.
According to operational data, at 2:26 the indicatorseconomic activityImprovement is expected after the 1Q26 decline. Overall, in the first half of 2026, the economy is growing at a moderate pace. Consumer demand growth has accelerated in recent months. Investment activity increased slightly after easing at the beginning of the year but remains restrained.
The easing of labor market tensions has slowed down. According to surveys, the share of enterprises experiencing a labor shortage has stopped decreasing. Companies’ plans for wage indexation in 2026 are being reduced. At the same time, wage growth continues to outpace labor productivity growth. Unemployment remains at a historic minimum.
Monetary and credit conditionscontinued to ease but remain strict. Interest rates have decreased in most segments of the financial market. At the same time, there was an increase in medium- and long-term OFZ bond yields. According to the Bank of Russia’s assessments, this is not a sign of tightening monetary conditions and is mainly related to uncertainty regarding future budget planning. Non-price terms of bank lending remain strict.
Credit activity in recent months has increased both in the corporate and in the retail segment. The propensity of households to save remains generally high.
ProinflationaryrisksDeflationary risks still prevail over inflationary ones in the medium-term horizon. Inflationary risks are associated with high inflation expectations and a prolonged period of wage growth at rates exceeding labor productivity growth, as well as deteriorating prospects for the global economy and rising price pressures worldwide amid geopolitical tensions. Inflationary risks have increased due to a temporary reduction in motor fuel production. Deflationary risks are linked to a more significant slowdown in domestic demand.
The Bank of Russia’s baseline scenario assumes that, in the medium term, budgetary policy will contribute to a slowdown in inflation. However, narrowing the primary structural budget deficit by 2029 may require a tighter monetary policy than in the baseline scenario.
1 July 2026The Bank of Russia publishes a summary of the key rate discussion.
The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, at which the issue of the key interest rate will be considered, is scheduled for24 July 2026. The time of publication of the press release about the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia and the medium-term forecast is 13:30 Moscow time.
When using the material, a reference to the Press Service of the Bank of Russia is mandatory.
19.06.2026 13:30:00
Note; This information is raw content obtained directly from the information source. It represents an accurate report of what the source claims and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.