Published on: 2026-05-07
Source: Central Bank of Russia – Central Bank of Russia –
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Materialreflects the main points of the discussion about the situation in the economy, inflation, monetary-credit and external conditions, as well as options for decisions on the key rate.
The main topics of discussion were assessments of sustainable inflationary pressure and the dynamics of economic activity.
The majority of participants agreed that, with the exception of the VAT contribution, sustainable inflation in the first quarter of 2026 remained in the range of 4–5% (seasonally adjusted on an annualized basis). The easing of domestic demand and the accumulated tightening of monetary conditions will contribute to the slowing down of sustainable inflation and its return to 4% in the second half of 2026.
According to the participants of the discussion, temporary factors played a significant role in the slowdown of economic activity in the first quarter of 2026 – fewer working days in 2026 compared to the previous year and adverse weather conditions. In the second quarter of 2026, the calendar factor will act in the opposite direction: in May–June there will be more working days than previously in the year. The real picture of economic activity can be more accurately assessed for the first half of the year as a whole.
Discussion participants drew attention to inflation risks from the budget and external conditions. High budgetary expenditures at the beginning of the year may lead to a greater budgetary impulse by the end of the year. As for external conditions, currently the growth of world prices and logistical costs is largely offset by the strengthening of the ruble. However, if the conflict in the Middle East continues, its impact may become more inflationary.
As a result of the discussion, the key rate was reduced by 50 basis points, to 14.50% per annum. The Bank of Russia will assess the advisability of further lowering the key rate at the nearest meeting depending on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown, the dynamics of inflation expectations, as well as the assessment of risks from external and internal conditions.
About how the situation in the economy will develop, read inComments on the medium-term forecast of the Bank of Russia.
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