UN Secretary-General Presented Three Scenarios for the Development of the Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz

April 30, 2026 World and Security

Restriction of freedom of navigation, the UN chief reminded, hinders the supply of oil, gas, and fertilizers, which has become a severe blow to the global economy. The Secretary-General emphasized that the entire humanity is paying for the conflict.

He presented three scenarios for the development of events. In the best case, if the restrictions are lifted today, global economic growth this year will still shrink from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent, while inflation will rise to 4.4 percent. It will take months to restore supply chains.

“The growth rates of global merchandise trade are slowing down – from 4.7 percent last year to about 2 percent [this year],” Guterres said.

The second scenario assumes that supply disruptions will extend until mid-year. In this case, economic growth will decrease to 2.5 percent, and inflation will reach 5.4 percent. About 32 million people will fall below the poverty line, and another 45 million will face extreme hunger due to fertilizer shortages and low crop yields.

The third scenario is the most pessimistic. If the restrictions on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz are not lifted by the end of the year, inflation will exceed 6 percent, and economic growth will shrink to 2 percent. The world may face a global recession, which will entail the most severe consequences for the planet’s population.

“Every day of vessel downtime leads to increased costs and amplifies its consequences for the global economy,” Guterres said.

What the UN does

“My message to all sides is crystal clear: freedom and the rights of the judiciary must be restored immediately, as required byResolution 2817 of the Security Council. Open the spill. Let all ships pass. Let the world economy breathe,” added the Secretary-General.

He also urged the parties to avoid any actions that could undermine the ceasefire regime.

The UN Chief reminded that the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is developing an evacuation plan for ships and sailors, and the head of the UN Office for Project Services (UNOPS) Jorge Moreira da Silva is heading to the region for consultations on creating a humanitarian corridor. The UN Secretary-General’s personal envoy for the Middle East conflict, Jan Arno, also continues negotiations with all parties in search of a peaceful solution.

“Now is the time for dialogue. For decisions that will not allow us to fall into the abyss. And for measures capable of paving the way to peace,” Gutierrez said.

Liquefied gas supplies have decreased by 20 percent

Meanwhile, a representative of the United Nations European Economic Commission, Dario Ligutti, reported that global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies have already decreased by 20 percent — both due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and due to disruptions in the operation of infrastructure, including the world’s largest industrial complex for the production of liquefied gas, Ras Laffan in Qatar.

“This has led to a 140 percent increase in prices in Asia, and a 70 percent increase in Europe,” noted Liguti.

The crisis is felt most acutely in the countries of Southeast and South Asia. However, according to the expert, Europe will feel the consequences in the near future, especially as the winter season approaches.

“If the situation in the Persian Gulf region deteriorates, it will affect the stockpiles of fuel intended for heating,” he warned.

Problems in Agriculture

The crisis affected not only the energy sector, but also the fertilizer market. According to estimates, about one third of the world’s fertilizer supplies were threatened due to shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, prices in some regions increased by 50 percent.

“This represents a serious threat to the next planting season in the Northern Hemisphere, as fertilizers necessary for maintaining yield are missing,” Liguti noted.

Supplies of liquefied propane, widely used for cooking in South and Southeast Asia, have also decreased. In particular, about 60 percent of household fuel consumed in India is delivered through the Strait of Hormuz.

Necessity of conversion to renewable energy sources

According to Liguti, the current crisis has become yet another reminder of the instability of the global energy system.

“He shows how vulnerable we are to regional shocks and how much we still depend on fossil fuels,” he emphasized.

The expert called for increasing the energy efficiency of the economy, reducing resource consumption, and also using them more rationally.

“It is obviously necessary to accelerate the implementation of renewable energy sources,” emphasized Liguti.

According to him, the use of cleaner energy sources increases energy security.

The UN ECE emphasizes that the energy system should necessarily be considered as a complex—from electricity generation to its distribution, transmission, and final consumption.