Published on: 2026-04-24
Source: Central Bank of Russia – Central Bank of Russia –
An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
The Board of Directors of Bank Rossii on April 24, 2026, made a decision to reduce key bet by 50 b.p., to 14.50% Annual. The dynamics of domestic demand have approached the possibilities of expanding the supply of goods and services. At the same time, indicators of stable price growth have not yet decreased and, according to the Bank of Russia, remain in the range of 4–5% per year. There is increasing uncertainty from the side of external conditions and parameters of budgetary policy.
The Bank of Russia will evaluate the advisability of further lowering the key rate at the upcoming meeting depending on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown, the dynamics of inflation expectations, as well as the assessment of risks from external and internal conditions. The baseline scenario assumes an average key rate in the range of 14.0–14.5% per annum in 2026 and 8.0–10.0% per annum in 2027. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, taking into account the monetary policy being conducted, annual inflation will decrease to 4.5–5.5% in 2026. Stable inflation is expected to settle near 4% in the second half of 2026. In 2027 and later, annual inflation will approach the target.
V 1k26current price growthWith adjustment for seasonality, the average was 8.7% annualized compared to 4.4% in Q4 2025. A similar indicator of core inflation averaged 6.3% after 5.0% in the previous quarter. This dynamic is linked to one-off factors (primarily an increase in VAT and the indexing of regulated prices and tariffs). Excluding these, the estimate of underlying inflation remained unchanged and generally fluctuates in the range of 4–5% annualized. Annual inflation, according to the assessment on April 20, was 5.7%.
Inflation expectations have changed in different directions since March. Inflation expectations of the population have decreased. Businesses’ price expectations have not changed significantly. Expectations of financial market participants have increased slightly. Overall, expectations of future inflation remain at a high level. This may hinder its sustainable slowdown.
According to operational data,Russian economyIn Q1 2026, there was a slowdown, including due to tax changes that were under construction. Also influencing this was a smaller number of working days and unfavorable weather conditions. Investment activity remains subdued. The trend towards slowing consumer demand growth begins earlier, despite some recovery in March. Considering that the economic activity dynamics in Q1 2026 are largely due to one-off factors, the GDP growth forecast for 2026 remains at the level of 0.5–1.5%.
Tension in the labor market is gradually decreasing. According to survey data, the share of enterprises experiencing a shortage of personnel continues to decline and is at a minimum level since mid-2023. Companies plan more moderate wage indexations in 2026 compared to 2023–2025. At the same time, unemployment remains at a historical minimum, while wage growth continues to outpace labor productivity growth.
Monetary and credit conditionsHave somewhat softened, but remain strict. Interest rates have decreased in most segments of the financial market. Non-price conditions of bank lending remain strict as before.
Credit activity is restrained. This is partly due to record-high government bond advances at 1.26. The household propensity to save remains generally high.
ProinflationaryrisksDisinflationary risks still predominate over inflationary ones in the medium-term horizon. The main inflationary risks are associated with a deterioration in the prospects of the global economy and with rising price pressures worldwide amid increasing geopolitical tensions, as well as with high inflationary expectations and a prolonged period of wage growth rates exceeding labor productivity growth. Disinflationary risks are associated with a more significant slowdown in domestic demand.
The Bank of Russia relies on the announced parameters of fiscal policy. They assume that in the medium term, fiscal policy will contribute to slowing inflation. In the case of higher income growth, accompanied by an increase in the structural budget deficit, a tighter monetary policy will be required than in the baseline scenario.
Following the results of the Board of Directors meeting on the key rate on April 24, 2026, the Bank of Russia updatedmedium-term forecast.
7 May 2026The Bank of Russia publishes a summary of the key rate discussion and a comment on the medium-term forecast.
The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, at which the issue of the key rate will be considered, is scheduled forJune 19, 2026. Time of publication of the press release about the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia – 13:30 Moscow time.
When using the material, a reference to the Press Service of the Bank of Russia is mandatory.
24.04.2026 13:30:00
Please note; this information is unprocessed content received directly from the source of the information. It represents an accurate report of what the source claims and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.