Published on: 2026-06-30
Source: United Nations – Объединенные Нации –
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June 30, 2026 Economic Development
The resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz should reduce tensions in global energy markets and facilitate international trade. However, for many developing countries, the economic consequences of more than 100 days of disruptions will persist for a long time. This is warned by experts from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The new UNCTAD analysis states that 61 vulnerable economies simultaneously depend on imports of oil and cereals. This group includes 35 least developed countries and 26 small island developing states, with seven countries belonging to both categories. They are the ones most acutely affected by rising prices of fuel, food, and transport.
Why the consequences persist
Experts note that energy markets usually recover faster than transportation and food systems. It takes time to renegotiate shipping contracts, restore supply chains, and reduce the cost of fuel, fertilizers, and agricultural products.
For millions of people, this means that the prices of food and transportation may remain high even after global oil prices stabilize. This is especially painful for the poorest families, for whom expenses on food and fuel constitute a significant part of the budget.
Double blow
The situation is particularly challenging in countries dependent on energy imports. For example, in Cape Verde, the net import of oil and petroleum products has averaged 24.6 percent of GDP in recent years. This makes the economy extremely sensitive to fuel price increases, which quickly affect the cost of electricity, transportation, and food products.
No less serious risks arise in countries dependent on food imports. In Yemen, for example, the net import of grain and grain products averages 10.8 percent of GDP, so the simultaneous rise in the prices of grain, fuel, and transportation especially heavily affects the population.
The increase in energy costs may also affect the price of food products even before they reach the market. As a result, domestic food prices may continue to rise even after global prices for oil and grain begin to decline.
According to UNCTAD’s assessment, the consequences are not only economic but also humanitarian in nature. The analysis shows that a five percent increase in food prices raises the risk of malnutrition among children, especially in poor families and rural residents who do not own land.
International support
UNCTAD emphasizes that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is only the first step towards recovery. Many vulnerable countries still face increased import costs, supply delays, and high prices for food and energy resources.
At the same time, their ability to support the population and businesses is limited by a high debt burden, currency risks, a reduction in remittances from abroad, and a decrease in the volume of international aid.
Experts believe that the international community needs to help these countries cope with increased import costs, protect the population from new price shocks, and invest in enhancing the resilience of their economies to such crises in the future.
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