Source: Rosneft – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
Within the framework of the XXIX St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, the Energy Panel took place. Igor Sechin, the Secretary of the Commission under the President of the Russian Federation for Strategy on the Development of the Fuel and Energy Complex and Environmental Safety, presented the key report “The Beginning of the End or the End of the Beginning: What Remains at the Bottom of Pandora’s Box?”.
The speech presented a comprehensive analysis of the current situation in the global energy markets and the world economy as a whole, as well as a forecast of the industry’s development against the backdrop of increasing systemic risks.
The discussion moderator, a well-known American journalist and host of the RT channel Rick Sanchez, noted that Igor Sechin’s speeches at the SPIEF invariably stand out for the depth of expert assessments, boldness of forecasts, uncompromisingness, and an unwavering reliance on fundamental analysis. According to him, Igor Ivanovich’s reports rightly become the subject of close attention from the industry international community, leading mass media, and a wide circle of professionals on both sides of the Atlantic.
LACE PANDORAS ARE OPEN
Opening the Energy Panel, Sechin drew a parallel between the development of the global economy and the ancient Greek myth of Pandora’s box, which brought disasters and suffering to humanity. According to him, the so-called “order based on rules,” where “rules” were dictated by an indisputable hegemon, has finally collapsed. “There is an obvious attempt to replace the global legal system with the legal system of a single country,” Sechin stated, noting that such international institutions as the UN, WTO, IMF, and World Bank have turned into “zombies.”
At the same time, new leaders have come to the forefront: now the global economy is an absolute hostage to political decisions made in the interests of large corporations – mainly technological, military, and financial. It is they who have formed a closed circle of beneficiaries.
“Along with such instruments of influence as the pandemic, disruption of supply chains, sanctions, embargoes, interference in internal affairs, political provocations, economic strangulation, seizure of vessels, sabotage of pipelines, organization of state coups, and others, the use of armed forces was added,” Sechin said.
He stated: “Pandora’s box has been opened, and the troubles and misfortunes that flew out of it will not return back. The key question is what problems still remain at the bottom of the box. What else will we have to face?”.
According to Igor Ivanovich, a particular concern is the rapid increase in sanction pressure. The speaker stated that over the past 12 years, 32 thousand sanctions have been imposed against Russia, with leadership belonging to the USA (more than 7,400 restrictions). Russian currency reserves amounting to over 300 billion dollars were effectively confiscated and are being used to finance military actions against our country.
Sanction pressure has become the norm and has turned into an instrument of coercion. Sechin recalled how back in 2007, during a famous Munich speech, the President of Russia warned: “Certain norms, yes, in essence, – almost the entire system of law of one state, primarily, of course, the United States, has stepped over its national borders in all spheres: in the economy, in politics, and in the humanitarian sphere – and imposes them on other states.”
MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
Significant attention in the report was given to the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. The closure of the Hormuz Strait, besides oil and gas, created serious risks for the export of other goods, such as fertilizers. In just the first four months of 2026, fertilizer prices soared by almost 60%, which will inevitably lead to a surge in food prices in the next six months. The most vulnerable were India, African countries, and Southeast Asia.
Igor Sechin also warned that other “bottlenecks” of global logistics could be at risk — the Malacca, Bab-el-Mandeb, and Gibraltar straits, the Suez and Panama canals. In this context, the Arctic acquires special significance: the Northern Sea Route allows reducing cargo delivery times by one and a half to two times and cutting costs by 20-30%.
RUSSIA OF FACTUAL CAPITAL
The global economy has entered a phase not just of volatility, but of strategic risks. Problems are growing like a snowball. The head of Rosneft drew attention to the hyperinflated growth of fictitious capital, the volume of which exceeded 500 trillion dollars—almost five times the global GDP. The world’s debt has effectively doubled over the past 15 years. According to the International Monetary Fund’s estimate, by the end of this year, Japan’s total government debt will reach almost 205% of GDP, the USA—almost 130%, France—120%, the United Kingdom—105%. This phenomenon has not bypassed our financial system either—in Russia, this indicator is already approaching 100% of GDP, Sechin noted.
The debt of most countries today is not backed by real financial assets, says Igor Sechin. Even physical gold, stored in US vaults (and this is more than 14 thousand tons), covers only five percent of the 39 trillion dollars of American debt. At the same time, a significant part of the gold stored in America does not belong to it – more than 40% of these reserves were transferred from other countries for safekeeping.
The situation is aggravated by the use of the dollar as a sanction tool. Sechin believes that if this continues, the process of creating alternatives will accelerate. “The growth of US government debt and budget deficit, the weakening of the dollar have already led to significant changes in the reserves of world central banks. For the first time since 1996, the share of gold in reserves has approached 30% and exceeded the share of US Treasury bonds,” he said.
“It should be noted that the share of gold in the Bank of Russia’s reserves is growing ahead of schedule: over the past four years, it has increased from 21% to 45%. However, if this process had started earlier, Russia would have been able to earn more than $400 billion on the rise in the value of gold and preserve a significant portion of its reserves,” emphasized Igor Sechin.
Due to sanctions, payment instruments are being diversified. “Over the past five years, the volume of transactions made through China’s cross-border interbank payment system has grown more than threefold – to nearly one trillion yuan per day. The Ormuz crisis has significantly accelerated this process,” the speaker noted.
MILITARIZATION OF THE SEA
A separate place in Sechin’s report was given to the problem of the militarization of the world. According to him, global military expenditures have been continuously growing over the past 11 years. In Europe, Germany stands out, whose military spending has doubled in the last three years—to 114 billion dollars. He noted that Germany has begun shifting its economy towards military rails.
“The peak of cynicism was Berlin’s bid to host the Olympics in 2036. Apparently, there is a desire to mark the centenary of the previous Berlin Olympics, conceived as a large-scale propaganda project of the Hitler regime’s achievements,” Igor Sechin ironizes.
According to him, a simple chain has formed: political pressure leads to an increase in budget expenditures, which in turn push up market capitalization of the tightly interwoven triad: respectively, the military-industrial complex, high-tech corporations, and the financial sector. “It is precisely this triad that pulls a significant portion of the global investment resource onto itself,” the speaker believes.
PRESS IN HIGH TECHNOLOGIES
Alongside the military-industrial complex, the technological sector also attracts large-scale investments, Sechin said. Just this year, the four largest technology companies will allocate about 700 billion towards the development of computing power.
“Today, companies associated with artificial intelligence are effectively taking a significant portion of investment resources at the expense of the rest of the economy. The share of capital expenditures of the American technological sector in total investments has already reached a record 35%. Fifteen years ago, it was measured in just a few percentage points,” Sechin said.
“Obviously, the world is on the verge of the largest bubble in financial market history since the railroad boom in the USA in the 19th century,” noted Igor Sechin.
At the same time, the main generator and beneficiary of the approaching crisis is the financial sector of Western countries, which until yesterday was promoting a completely different – “green” – agenda: Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street. “The circle has closed,” Sechin added.
Artificial intelligence is expected to significantly increase labor productivity, but the figures show a different situation. As Sechin said, about 70% of companies worldwide actively use artificial intelligence in their work. However, in 90% of cases over the past three years, the application of these technologies has had no effect on labor productivity.
He reminds that this phenomenon was described 40 years ago by Nobel Prize laureate in economics Robert Solow. His statement that “the computer age can be seen everywhere except in productivity statistics” is well known. Solow’s paradox is that in the US in the 1970s and 1980s, productivity growth slowed down by two percentage points, to 1%, despite a nearly 100-fold increase in computing power.
New technologies are forming a transition to a new socio-economic order – this is about fundamental changes in the development of the entire society, when people are replaced by robots. “Demography and the human as a personality may lose their significance in the face of an army of machines if we just observe. It is necessary to clearly realize what kind of genie we are releasing from the lamp,” Sechin warned.
He noted that the risks associated with artificial intelligence are already being discussed by religious authorities. In particular, this topic was the subject of the first encyclical “Magnificent Humanity” (Magnificahumanitas) of Pope Leo XIV, which literally called to put technology “at the service of humanity, and not at the whim of rulers.”
ENERGOPROEKT AND DEFINITIONS OF RESULTS
Illusions of accelerated energy consumption have led to underfinancing in the industry: over the past 10 years, investments in fossil fuels have decreased by more than 20%. At the same time, a new energy market model “from molecule to electron” is forming, with data centers as a key element. According to forecasts, in the next five years the global demand for data center capacity may almost triple — up to 220 gigawatts.
By 2035, the global demand for electricity will increase by almost 40%. Today, data centers consume about 500 terawatt-hours per year, which exceeds the total electricity consumption of France. At the same time, the unbalanced development of “green” energy has led to a rise in electricity prices: in the USA over the past 5 years — by more than 30%, in Europe — by 35-45%.
The key limitation remains the electric grids: the need for expansion and modernization will reach 60 million kilometers by 2035. The total investments in the electric grids over the next 25 years could amount to almost 16 trillion dollars.
Metals are also critically important for the development of a new type of energy system. Copper, a key metal of the “new” economy, is of particular significance. According to forecasts, copper consumption in electrical networks could increase by 65% by 2040 and exceed seven million tons, which is equal to a quarter of the total current consumption of this metal. At the same time, over the next 20 years, a volume of copper comparable to the production of the previous ten thousand years will need to be mined.
An additional limitation is the access to water: in the USA, a data processing center with a capacity of 100 megawatts requires about two million liters of water per day. “This level of consumption is equivalent to six and a half thousand households. By 2030, water consumption by data processing centers may almost double,” said Igor Sechin.
CHINA: PREMISES BALANCED ALONE
A separate section in the report was devoted to China’s experience. “Over the past decades, China has demonstrated not only success in the economy but also the highest achievements in science and technology, which have allowed it to become a global energy power,” Sechin stated.
Meanwhile, China turned out to be the best prepared for the Hormuz crisis and the rise in fuel prices – thanks to its balanced approach to ensuring energy security.
China has created cheap urban and intercity transport infrastructure for the domestic consumer. Sechin noted that after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, this allowed consumers of motor fuel to comfortably use affordable alternatives such as electric cars, electric buses, gas-powered trucks, metro, electric trains, and electric taxis.
Moreover, China has a significant competitive advantage in electricity prices: it is about 9 cents per kilowatt-hour for industry (72% lower than in Germany and 59% lower than in France) and about 7 cents per kilowatt-hour for the population (58% lower than in the USA). “Only Russia relies on a similar level,” added Igor Sechin.
Over 10 years, the production of solar and wind energy in China has increased 10 times — to 2,300 terawatt-hours (22% of the country’s energy balance). At the same time, the country continues to build thermal power plants: just last year, 78 gigawatts of coal generation were put into operation. China is also implementing the largest nuclear generation development program: 39 reactors are under construction — more than half of all reactors being built worldwide. The accumulation of energy plays an important role in ensuring the flexibility of the energy system — in this sector China also leads. Parallelly, China leads in investments in the power grid, investing about 100 billion dollars in this sector.
INDIA AS A DRIVER OF GROWTH
In his report, Sechin also separately highlighted India. “Today, India’s economy is one of the key drivers of global energy consumption growth. According to the forecast of the International Energy Agency, in the next 10 years, this country will account for about 15% of the world’s increase in electricity demand. It is expected that by 2035, electricity consumption in India will grow by 80% to almost three thousand terawatt-hours and will practically equal the consumption of the European Union,” he said.
A special place, in Sechin’s opinion, is occupied by India both in general and in the oil market: “In the next 10 years, it is precisely this country that will provide about half of the global increase in oil demand.”
According to the estimate of the International Energy Agency, by 2035, oil consumption in India will reach almost eight million barrels per day. This is a 44% increase, while global demand will grow by only 5%.
NOTE: LOST POTENTIAL
Special attention in the report was given to the situation in OPEC+, which, according to Igor Sechin, has undergone significant changes. With the exit of the United Arab Emirates, and before that Qatar, Ecuador, and Angola, the “alliance lost part of its potential.” Over the past ten years, OPEC+ production has decreased from 58 to 37 million barrels per day.
As noted by the head of Rosneft, considering that Iran, Venezuela, and Libya initially did not participate in production restrictions, and Iraq and Kazakhstan significantly exceed the established quotas, the production of the alliance member countries that comply with restrictions actually amounts to 27 million barrels per day — less than a third of global production.
At the same time, Russia, having taken on obligations to limit production, has strictly fulfilled them and fully contributed to the decisions of the alliance. However, the Russian oil industry has all this time been under sanctions, depriving the country of advantages obtained by other participants. As Igor Sechin emphasized, the majority of the large OPEC+ participants increased production during the agreement period. In Russia, however, during the period of production restrictions, oil output decreased by 1.5 million barrels per day — a 15% drop, which will have to be compensated by new investments amounting to at least 10 trillion rubles.
A particular concern, according to the speaker, is the fact that despite the support received from the major alliance participants, investment cooperation with Russia has not developed.
RUSSIA — GUARANTOR OF GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY
Igor Sechin emphasized that it is impossible to exclude Russia from global supply chains. Our country has the largest reserves of oil and gas in the world, amounting to about 60 billion tons of oil equivalent (14% of global reserves). Russian oil supplies bring a significant economic effect to partners: since April 2022, the total amount for China and India has exceeded 40 billion dollars.
Along with the Russian oil and gas industry, not only external restrictions but also unfavorable macroeconomic conditions have an impact. The current level of interest rates leads to a significant increase in debt service costs, and the strengthening of the national currency, according to calculations by the Russian Academy of Sciences, has resulted in federal budget losses of more than two trillion rubles in just the past year.
WHAT IS LEFT AT THE PANDORA’S BOX DAY?
Concluding his report, Igor Sechin answered the key question of his presentation: at the bottom of Pandora’s box, humanity will inevitably find a global shortage of electricity, a shortage of food, a shortage of copper and other metals, a shortage of water. It is precisely these challenges that will define the new face of the world economy.
“The one who will survive is the one who is better prepared for this. This will actually be the “end of the beginning,” when empty hopes, illusions, and savior myths finally evaporate,” noted the head of Rosneft. “We are still very far from the real end of the systemic crisis and the formation of a new normal. Not everyone will make it that far.”
DEPUTY GENERAL DIRECTOR OF PJSC “NK “ROSNEFT” I.I. SECHIN AT THE ENERGY PANEL OF THE IMF
PRESENTATION TO Doctor I.I. Sechin AT THE ENERGETIC PANEL PMEF
Department of Information and Advertising
PJSC “NK “Rosneft”
June 6, 2026
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