Published on: 2026-05-28
Source: United Nations – United Nations –
An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
In the next five years, the global average temperature will most likely remain at a record level or close to it, while temperature anomalies in the Arctic are expected to exceed global average values. This is stated in a new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It summarizes forecasts prepared by 13 different institutes.
The report analyzes climate data from the past five years and provides regional forecasts of temperature and precipitation for the next five years. It is expected that the average annual global surface temperature in 2026–2030 will be 1.3–1.9 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average (period 1850–1900).
New records
The probability that one year in the period between 2026 and 2030 will be hotter than 2024 and will become the warmest year on record is 86 percent. At the same time, the average global surface temperature will temporarily exceed the average figures for the period 1850–1900 by 1.5 degrees Celsius for at least one year in the period from 2026 to 2030 (the probability of this is 91 percent).
There is also a high probability that the average value over the five-year period 2026–2030 will be 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the value for the period 1850–1900.
However, most likely, the temperature will not exceed the average value for the period 1850–1900 by more than 2 degrees Celsius. Experts also predict the development of El Niño conditions, especially in 2027 and 2028.
“By the end of 2026, the El Niño phenomenon is forecasted, which increases the likelihood that the following year, 2027, will become another record-breaking year,” said the lead author of the report Leon Hermanson.
The level of 1.5 degrees Celsius (and 2 degrees Celsius), recorded in the Paris Agreement, refers to long-term warming — usually over a period of 20 years. The fact that in some years the global average temperature temporarily exceeds these indicators does not mean that the long-term target indicators for temperature, enshrined in the Paris Agreement, have become unattainable.
Regional forecasts
According to forecasts, the temperature in the Arctic during the next five winters in the Northern Hemisphere (November–March) will be 2.8 degrees Celsius above the average values for 1991–2020, which is more than three and a half times higher than the average global temperature for the same period, the report says.
Forecasts of the state of Arctic sea ice for March 2026–2035 indicate a further reduction in its concentration in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas.
Precipitation forecasts indicate that in the Northern Hemisphere, over the next five winter seasons, there will be wetter than usual weather. In Spain, Northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia, on the contrary, wetter weather will occur during the summer period.
Please note; This information is raw content obtained directly from the source of information. It represents an exact report of what the source claims and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.