Published on: 2026-05-23
Source: Central Bank of Russia – Central Bank of Russia –
An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
The growth of demands from the banking sector to companies in Q1 2026 slowed down to 0.7%. This is due to high budget revenues: government contract executors received payments on them and required less financing. As a result, the upper bound of the forecast for 2026 has been lowered by 1 percentage point: it is now 7–11% compared to 7–12% in the previous forecast.
The growth of household mortgage debt has also slowed to 1.4%, following the surge in demand ahead of the tightening of the “Family Mortgage” conditions from February 1, 2026. Taking this into account, the upper limit of the forecast range for 2026 has been adjusted: a growth of 6–10% is expected (6–11% in the previous forecast).
The consumer credit portfolio grew insignificantly (+0.3%) over the quarter for the first time since the end of 2024, with the main driver being the credit card segment. In 2026, consumer lending may increase by 4–8% (4–9% in the previous forecast). The upper limit of the range is lowered because monetary and credit conditions are easing more slowly than expected.
Client funds have practically not changed, the forecast for 2026 remains in the range of 5–10%.
In the quarter, banks earned 1.2 trillion rubles in net profit (0.9 trillion rubles in Q4). This was mainly influenced by the reduction of operating expenses after seasonally high costs at the end of the year, as well as smaller reserve creation for investments in non-core business – banks usually recognize impairment on these companies at the end of the year.
The profit forecast for 2026 has been adjusted upwards to 3.4–3.9 trillion from 3.3–3.8 trillion rubles. At the same time, restraining profit growth in subsequent quarters may be an increase in allocations to reserves for companies with a high debt burden and previously accumulated problems.
More detailed information is presented in the quarterly review“Banking sector”.
Photo for preview: Oleg Elkhov / TASS
Please note; this information is unprocessed content, obtained directly from the information source. It represents an accurate report of what the source states, and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.