Published on: 2026-04-02
Source: United Nations – United Nations –
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The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a deep crisis that could gradually affect the entire global economy. This is stated by experts at the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
Energy crisis
The situation that worsened after the escalation at the end of February led to a catastrophic reduction in maritime transportation – by 95 percent: the number of transits fell from 130 vessels per day in February to only six per day in March.
Accidents in a key energy artery immediately led to a shortage of oil and gas supplies, as well as paralyzed adjacent logistic systems, including maritime and aviation freight transportation.
A sharp jump in fuel prices has triggered an increase in the cost of production and transportation of goods worldwide. UNCTAD notes that this primarily affects the transportation of oil and liquefied natural gas by tankers following routes through the Strait of Hormuz, while container shipments are experiencing indirect pressure due to rising costs.
Global problem
Europe and South Asia are in the high-risk zone: they are most dependent on Middle Eastern exports. If disruptions are prolonged, prices will remain high for an extended period.
At UNCTAD it is also noted that against the backdrop of geopolitical instability, the growth rates of global merchandise trade in 2026 may slow to 1.5–2.5 percent compared to 4.7 percent in 2025. It is expected that the growth of global GDP will also decrease from 2.9 percent to 2.6 percent.
Developing countries under pressure
The situation is exacerbated by financial instability: investors are massively withdrawing capital from developing countries, which leads to a weakening of their currencies and an increase in the cost of critically important imports – food and fertilizers. This also means that countries face rising costs for borrowing in international markets.
Under conditions when 3.4 billion people already live in countries where debt servicing costs exceed spending on healthcare and education, UNCTAD warns of the possibility of a global debt crisis.
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