Published on: 2026-11-10
Source: Mainfin Bank –
An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
After reviewing the family mortgages Russian banks started receiving about half as many applications as the average throughout 2026. From October 5 to 11, 13.7 thousand requests were received, and from October 12 to 18 – 14 thousand. These figures are comparable to December 2022. This is evidenced by the weekly statistics of DOM.RF.
Compared to the average weekly level in 2026 before the October decline, which was 26.7 thousand applications, the decrease reached 48.1%. The difference with September is even more noticeable: before the rule changes, banks received an average of 32.6 thousand applications per week. Compared to this period, the flow of applications has decreased by approximately 2.4 times.
Full reporting weeks were used for comparison. The period from September 28 to October 4, during which 28.8 thousand applications were received, does not show a reaction solely to the new rules: some appeals were submitted even before they came into effect.
In the first half of December 2022, banks received 12,700 and 13,900 applications in two full weeks. At the beginning of January 2023, the figure decreased to 11,800, but activity was then influenced by the holidays. Therefore, the December values provide a more indicative comparison.
It is also important to note the difference in the program’s conditions. Since the beginning of 2023, the family mortgage program was expanded to include families with two minor children. October figures have returned to the level of the period before this expansion, but this does not mean that the current borrower requirements exactly match the rules from four years ago.
Why the rate hike had such a noticeable impact on applications
Since October 1, 2026, the single 6% rate has given way to a system that takes into account the number of children and the region. For families with one child under seven years old, the loan costs 10% per annum in most regions and 12% in Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Moscow and Leningrad regions. For families with two children, rates are 8% and 10% respectively. Lower rates are provided for borrowers with many children.
At the same time, the revision was not limited to the interest rate. The maximum loan amounts increased: in most regions, they range from six to ten million rubles, and in four metropolitan regions – from 12 to 18 million rubles depending on the family composition. Simultaneously, the period of state subsidization was limited to 15 years. If the contract is concluded for a longer term, after the preferential period ends, the rate may change within the program’s rules.
For individual housing construction, the rate of 6% has been maintained regardless of the number of children and the region.
Another reason for the October decline is the shifting of some transactions to September. Buyers rushed to secure mortgages before the conditions changed. As a result, banks issued 441 billion rubles in September under all state support programs, almost twice the volume of August. These figures pertain to all preferential mortgages, not just the family program.
How restrictions are changing the composition of borrowers
In 2026, the program was already experiencing a sharp cooling. From February 1, the principle “one family – one preferential mortgage” came into effect: spouses must act as co-borrowers. After this, the number of applications decreased by more than 40%. During the first three full weeks of February, banks received 81.8 thousand applications compared to 146.4 thousand for the comparable January period.
The current decline is taking place against the backdrop of a generally weaker flow of applications. Considering October data, the average number of claims in 2026 is about 26,100 per week. In 2025, it reached 41,500; in 2024, nearly 40,000; and in 2023, 36,900.
The changes affect not only buyers purchasing housing for their own residence. In previous years, the difference between the preferential 6% and market rates, which at times exceeded 20%, sustained investment interest in apartments. Some borrowers expected to rent out the property or resell it at a higher price. But the profitability of such deals depended on the purchase price, rent, maintenance costs, and market dynamics.
According to the Accounts Chamber, in 2023 more than 110 thousand borrowers simultaneously held two or more preferential mortgage loans. Their total debt amounted to 1.11 trillion rubles. This indicator relates to preferential programs in general and does not mean that each such loan was taken out for investment purposes.
The new rules make family mortgages more targeted. However, the increase in the rate raises the payment even if the apartment’s cost remains unchanged.
When the market will be able to recover
The effects of the reduction in applications are reflected in loan issuances with a delay. In October, banks could still issue loans based on applications submitted in September. In November, this reserve will decrease, so the volume of loans granted may significantly decline.
Mikhail Doronkin, Managing Director of the NKR rating agency, believes that a more objective picture will be visible in the first months of 2027. The results of the fourth quarter are distorted by the fact that some families executed their purchase plans in advance.
According to his forecast, the share of preferential programs in mortgage lending will decrease compared to the 50-60% observed in the first nine months of the year. Some buyers may switch to the secondary market: according to the expert’s estimate, ready-made housing can be 5-15% cheaper than new buildings. However, a higher market rate limits the attractiveness of such a transition.
Senior Director for Credit Institution Ratings at Expert RA, Ekaterina Shchurikhina, expects that in November–December, family mortgage issuances will be at least 30-40% lower than the average monthly result from January to September. This is a forecast, not a confirmed reduction.
In 2027, an expert allows for partial recovery. Even the maximum family rate of 12% remains below the average market offers, which exceed 18%. According to DOM.RF, as of October 16, the average rate of the largest banks was 18.76% on new buildings and 18.69% on ready housing. Therefore, the program maintains an advantage for families who meet the requirements and are able to service the loan.
Summary:
- In the two full weeks of October, banks received 27,700 applications for family mortgages. Weekly figures have returned to the level of December 2022.
- Compared to the average figures of 2026, demand decreased by 48.1% before the October decline, and by about 2.4 times compared to September.
- The main reasons are the increase in rates for families with one or two children and the early completion of some transactions before the rules changed.
- The new conditions provide for higher credit limits but limit the subsidy to 15 years. The rate of 6% is maintained in the individual housing construction segment.
- Experts allow for the restoration of applications, but warn that approvals and disbursements will depend on the borrowers’ creditworthiness.
- At Expert RA, a 30-40% decrease in November and December issuances is forecasted compared to the average monthly level of the first nine months of the year. Market participants expect to assess stable demand at the beginning of 2027.
09:00 03.11.2026
Source:
Please note; This information is raw content received directly from the information source. It is an accurate report of what the source claims and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.