Published on: 2026-10-02
Source: Government of the Russian Federation –
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The Deputy Prime Minister presented the main parameters of the socio-economic development forecast for 2027 and the planned period of 2028 and 2029, spoke about the current economic situation, measures to launch a new investment cycle and improve the investment climate, increase labor productivity, develop the platform economy and creative industries.
“Our task is to restore sustainable economic growth rates and ensure further increases in citizens’ welfare. To achieve this, we plan to expand domestic production, improve resource utilization efficiency, and create conditions for new investments,” emphasized Alexander Novak.
He noted that after the high growth rates of 2023–2024, the economy has shifted to a more moderate dynamic. This is an expected stage: normalization after overheating and at the same time a condition for reducing inflation. Over the 8 months of 2026, GDP grew by 0.6% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, and in August – by 0.8%.
Industry as a whole over the 8 months remained at last year’s level, with manufacturing increasing by 0.4%. At the same time, several sectors are growing noticeably faster: the machine-building complex has grown by 6% since the beginning of the year, pharmaceuticals by 11.5%, with growth rates in the sector remaining in double digits for several years now. Freight turnover of transport excluding pipeline transport increased by 3.1% over the 8 months, and by 8.4% in August.
Real wages increased by 6% over 7 months, and real disposable income of the population rose by 1.5% in the first half of the year. Unemployment remains at a historic low of 2.2%. Against this backdrop, consumer activity remains high: the total turnover of retail trade, paid services, and public catering grew by 4.5% in real terms over 8 months — exceeding last year’s rates.
Annual inflation as of September 28 stood at 6.26%, with prices rising by 4.93% since the beginning of the year. By the end of 2026, it is forecasted to be 6.8%.
According to the baseline forecast, GDP growth will be 1.4% in 2027, followed by reaching 2.4% in 2029. By the end of the forecast period, the economy will exceed the 2025 level by 6.4%. The forecast is traditionally moderately conservative and takes into account both external and internal risks.
With stable employment, the main source of growth will be labor productivity: its growth will accelerate from 0.7% in 2026 to 2.4% in 2029. The structure of foreign trade is also changing: non-oil and gas exports will increase from $220 billion to $260 billion by 2029.
The Deputy Prime Minister emphasized that the implementation of the forecast depends on the results of national projects, balanced budget policy, and monetary conditions. Therefore, the Government’s focus is on structural measures that allow increasing demand and supply, freeing up resources for development, and ensuring the achievement of the national goals set by the President. The plan for structural changes in the economy is aimed at this.
“To return to a higher investment trajectory, the Government has begun work to launch a new investment cycle – this task was set by the President at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Resources are limited for both businesses and the state, so the focus is not on new money, but on the efficiency of existing resources,” said Alexander Novak.
Priorities include clearing accumulated debts and losses, including through pre-bankruptcy rehabilitation and restructuring; efficient use of available capacities and infrastructure; clear priorities in state support for investments based on taxonomy; development of institutional business conditions and reduction of the investment-construction cycle.
The most important tool for improving the investment climate is the national model of targeted business conditions. The goal for 2030 is to maintain Russia’s position among the top twenty countries in the world in terms of business conditions. The model includes 12 areas, including a new one – cultural heritage sites, with a ‘roadmap’ approved for each. Of more than 260 measures, 56 have already been implemented, 18 of them ahead of schedule. At the regional level, 24 key indicators have been identified, and 85 entities have approved the ‘roadmaps’.
Production will need to be expanded with limited labor resources, so increasing labor productivity becomes one of the main conditions for economic growth. Industry departments, together with businesses, have developed 17 sectoral productivity improvement programs — 11 in the real sector and 6 in the social sphere. Their implementation will compensate for the need for 3.3 million workers by 2030. All programs have been discussed at a subcommittee with the participation of the Federation Council, the State Duma, and business representatives. More than 8,500 enterprises are involved in the federal project “Labor Productivity,” and more than 470 projects have been completed since the beginning of the year; in the social sphere, 8,900 organizations have been involved.
The Deputy Prime Minister noted that the development of the platform economy expands the opportunities for regional producers, including small and medium-sized businesses, to enter the all-Russian market: since 2019, the number of SMEs in e-commerce has increased ninefold. The Government’s task is to maintain competition between platforms and sellers, as well as to balance the distribution of risks between business and the state.
The development of creative industries continues – software, architecture, design, gastronomy, and other fields where the product’s value is determined by intellectual labor. In 2025, their contribution to GDP amounted to 4.2%, or about 8.3 trillion rubles; the sector is growing four times faster than the economy as a whole and employs 4.6 million people. The goal for 2030 is to increase the share to 6%. The Council for the Development of Creative Industries under the Government has been established, the Strategy for the Development of the Creative Economy until 2036 has been adopted, and a plan for its implementation is being formed.
Alexander Novak answered senators’ questions – about the development of the Far East, the situation in the petroleum products market, the labor market, predictability of business conditions, and creative clusters in small towns.
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