Published on: 2026-09-20
Source: United Nations – United Nations –
An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
Leila Bilalova
September 19, 2026 Climate and Environment
If by the end of the century the sea level rises by half a meter – which scientists do not rule out – from 150 to 300 million people may be forced to leave their homes. Another approximately 500 million may face loss of access to fresh water and agricultural lands. These estimates were given in an interview with the UN News Service by Andrew Harper, the Special Adviser to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees on Climate Action. He also spoke about measures that can help people stay at home or relocate safely.
The most vulnerable are forced to flee
The rise in the level of the World’s oceans is no longer a distant threat – it is happening now and continues to accelerate. Although its consequences affect the entire world, the associated risks are unevenly distributed: in some Pacific countries, the sea level is rising twice as fast as the global average, despite their minimal contribution to global emissions. For instance, in Bangladesh, the encroachment of the sea leads to salinization of soils and freshwater sources, threatening agriculture and food security. The ability to counter these consequences largely depends on the resources available to people and states.
“People will try to adapt: reinforce the land, raise houses on stilts, and stay put as long as possible. But those who cannot afford this will be forced to leave. And these will be the most vulnerable,” Harper noted.
How to protect yourself from rising water
Among the measures to protect the most vulnerable areas, the expert mentioned the planting of mangrove forests, coastal protection, and drainage systems, as well as early warning and disaster readiness. He also called for preventing further settlement of territories threatened by flooding.
However, it will no longer be possible to completely prevent displacement. According to Harper’s estimate, if sea levels rise by half a meter by the end of the century, 150 to 300 million people may be forced to leave their homes. Another approximately 500 million may face loss of access to fresh water and agricultural lands.
At the same time, such relocation rarely happens all at once. Sea level rise is combined with flooding, salinization of water and soil, crop loss, and other social and economic factors. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to precisely determine its role in people’s decisions to leave and to assess the scale of future displacement.
Also read:
EXPLAINING | What rising sea levels mean for humanity
Load on cities and communities
Harper notes that in situations where the ability to stay in the same place is exhausted, most people do not leave their countries but move from coastal and rural areas to cities, where they hope to find housing, work, and access to necessary services. Such an influx of population, in turn, creates additional strain on the infrastructure and resources of the host communities. “Often, it is the poorest communities that show the greatest generosity, providing people with protection and sharing their resources. But their capacities are not unlimited,” Harper emphasized.
That is why resettlement must be planned in advance.
“We must help low-income people move to safer areas. It is necessary to prevent forced displacement and ensure planned resettlement so that people can move to places where they can not only live but also work,” says the expert.
Relocation that one can prepare for
Some countries and regional organizations are already creating appropriate mechanisms. Thus, within the framework of the “Falepili Union Treaty,” which is called the world’s first full-fledged treaty on “climate migration,” Australia has opened a special migration route that annually allows up to 280 Tuvalu citizens to obtain a permanent visa and live, work, and study in Australia. The word Falepili in the Tuvalu language means traditional values of good neighborliness, care, and mutual respect.
Similar measures are being taken in East Africa. Article 16 of the Protocol of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, known as IGAD, on free movement provides for the admission and temporary stay in the countries of the region of people crossing borders due to natural disasters and the effects of climate change.
According to Harper, such bilateral and regional mechanisms should become more widespread.
Without the status of ‘climate refugee’
For now, such mechanisms remain separate initiatives rather than part of a unified international system. To date, international law does not recognize a separate status of “climate refugee”: displacement due to drought, flooding, or sea-level rise in itself is not a basis for obtaining refugee status.
“There is no special international convention on displacement in the context of climate change or sea level rise. And there probably never will be, because for that the international community would have to reach a consensus,” Harper said.
At the same time, according to the expert, international law is gradually evolving in another direction – on the issue of preserving states threatened by rising sea levels. According to the emerging approach, countries at risk should retain sovereignty, international legal status, and rights to maritime zones even if their territory becomes uninhabitable. Such legal protection will allow relocated residents to maintain their citizenship and associated rights.
“No decisions about us without us”
However, retaining citizenship and legal ties with the state addresses only part of the problem. For the inhabitants of island countries, their homeland is not just a territory on the map; it connects them with their ancestors, culture, and traditions. Therefore, for many communities at risk, resettlement may mean losing the place to which they have grown accustomed to returning from generation to generation.
In many parts of the world, people leave hoping that one day they will be able to return. But what if there is nowhere left to return to?
“In many parts of the world, people leave hoping that one day they can return. But what if there is nowhere left to return to?” says Harper.
According to him, decisions about resettlement must be made with the direct participation of the affected communities. “No decisions about us without us – it’s as simple as that,” he emphasized.
According to him, the knowledge of local residents about the land, natural conditions, culture, and the needs of the population should be taken into account when developing specific programs. Equally important is ensuring that communities have direct access to climate financing: without the necessary funds, people will not be able to reinforce the coast, preserve sources of income, or relocate to a safe place.
Speaking about the upcoming high-level meeting, Andrew Harper called for judging its success not by the number of statements and declarations, but by concrete results. According to him, the participants of the meeting should set goals for the coming years and explain how their implementation will be evaluated. “Show me that the money really reaches the communities and helps them survive,” Harper concluded.
Please note; This information is raw content obtained directly from the information source. It is an accurate report of what the source asserts and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.