Published on: 2026-09-03
Source: United Nations – Объединенные Нации –
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September 3, 2026 Climate and Environment
The El Niño climatic phenomenon, fueled by abnormally warm waters of the Pacific Ocean, is rapidly gaining strength and has not yet reached its peak. Meteorologists are almost certain that this natural phenomenon will last at least until the end of February, and global air temperatures will be higher than usual in the coming months.
The current phenomenon has already fully developed. According to recent forecasts by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), it will peak by the end of the year and become “very strong.”
The likelihood that El Niño will remain strong through the end of February is now close to 100 percent. The WMO has never before made such unequivocal forecasts—neither for El Niño itself nor for the opposite, “cooling phenomenon”—La Niña.
Scientists are particularly alarmed by what lies beneath the ocean’s surface: a colossal reservoir of very warm water that will continue to “fuel” the phenomenon throughout the entire winter. In certain areas of the Pacific Ocean in July and early August, the temperature at depth exceeded the norm by more than 8 degrees Celsius.
This combination of factors indicates the development of an abnormally strong climatic phenomenon – and it is happening on a planet already heated by greenhouse emissions.
“El Niño is unfolding right before our eyes,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “The scientific data leave no doubt: the planet has entered uncharted territory, and temperatures continue to rise.”
Colossal heat reservoir
El Niño is a natural process that occurs every 2–7 years when the waters in the central and eastern parts of the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. This warming changes atmospheric circulation, reshaping the map of precipitation and temperatures across the Earth.
However, the current cycle is developing under unique conditions. The world ocean is already heated to historical maximums, creating an unprecedentedly high temperature background for the natural natural cycle.
Scientists do not yet directly claim that anthropogenic climate change makes El Niño itself more frequent or stronger. However, a warmer atmosphere and overheated ocean significantly amplify its effects, providing the natural phenomenon with an additional “resource” in the form of colossal amounts of heat and moisture.
The dynamics of the process are clearly illustrated by the numbers. The so-called Niño 3.4 index, reflecting the water temperature in the central tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean, exceeded the norm by an average of 1.5 degrees Celsius from May to July. By July, the deviation reached two degrees, and in some weekly measurements at the end of summer – 2.6 degrees.
Since the overheating is recorded at a significant depth, one should not expect a rapid decline: the climate “engine” El Niño still has a huge reserve of “fuel.”
© WMO/A. Nasir The world’s oceans have warmed to historic highs.
Global scale, uneven consequences
Even a very strong El Niño does not mean that disasters of equal strength will strike every region. Nevertheless, from September to November, air temperatures will be above the climate norm across almost all land areas.
The precipitation pattern is already taking on characteristics typical of El Niño: some corners of the planet are experiencing heavy rains and floods, while others face drought.
The situation is further complicated by other oceanic processes. In particular, a positive phase of the Dipole (another large-scale temperature fluctuation) is forming in the Indian Ocean, and the tropical Atlantic also remains unusually warm.
Due to the overlap of these factors, it is impossible to provide a precise forecast for a specific country. However, taken together, all indicators point to the onset of a period of increased climate risks.
“In Spanish, El Niño means ‘the boy,’ but this phenomenon is capable of delivering a devastating blow to entire communities and the global economy,” emphasized Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO. “We are already witnessing widespread destruction from droughts and floods, and as El Niño intensifies, the consequences will only worsen.”
Preparation for the anomaly
An unprecedented forecast demanded radical measures from meteorologists. For the first time in its half-century history, the World Meteorological Organization has launched a global mobilization of national hydrometeorological services. The goal is to significantly improve forecasts and strengthen early warning systems as threats intensify.
This initiative is designed to help governments and humanitarian organizations prepare for the consequences of El Niño, which may affect particularly vulnerable sectors, including agriculture, healthcare, energy, and water supply.
“Such an exceptional El Niño phenomenon requires an exceptional level of preparedness and the adoption of appropriate measures,” Saulo said.
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