Published on: 2026-04-12
Source: Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia – Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia –
An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
An employee of the engineering academy, Professor Andrey Baranov, has developed unique algorithms that allow for determining the maneuvering parameters of a spacecraft in just a few minutes based on a minimum of data — only one or two dimensions from Earth. The result is the ability to track active satellites faster and more accurately and predict the trajectories of “space debris,” reducing the risk of collisions in orbit.
Satellite maneuvers
Today, more than 25 thousand registered objects orbit the near-Earth space. About 5 thousand of them are maneuvering satellites. They constantly change their orbit: adjusting position, avoiding debris, or performing new tasks. The problem is that traditional methods require long-term observations: several communication sessions or series of measurements to “recalculate” the new orbit after a maneuver. During all this time, the satellite remains “invisible” to ground tracking stations, which increases the risk of accidental collision.
Andrey Baranovproposed a fundamentally different approach. Previously, determining the orbit after a maneuver required at least three independent measurements (using the Laplace and Gauss methods). RU D N scientist proved that one or two are enough! Instead of accumulating many measurements, he uses only one or two short measurements, so-called “tracklets,” series of measurements lasting several seconds or minutes. This is like jumping over three steps at once. From these sparse data, his algorithm reconstructs the complete picture: where, when, and with what force the engine was activated, how the orbit changed, and where the satellite is now headed.
Space will stop being empty — around the Earth there is a real “traffic jam” of satellites and debris. The faster we understand where the object will fly after the maneuver, the safer the flights will be. Our method allows us to do this by two angles — like a navigator determines a course by stars, but we use mathematics to do it.
Andrey Baranov
Professor of the Engineering Academy of RUDN, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, leading research fellow at the M.V. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
It is especially valuable that the method works fortwo types of maneuvers.
- Short pulse activations, for example, in communication satellites on a geostationary orbit. The algorithm detects the moment of impact and the velocity imparted by the engine.
- Long low-thrust engine maneuvers, modern electroreactive engines. The scientist used the symmetry effect — the engine operates symmetrically relative to the midpoint of the interval, which allows accurately calculating the duration of operation and the generated acceleration.
Unaccounted Indignations
But the main “highlight” of the work is not only in maneuvering the satellite. Andrey Baranov showed how, using the same formula, it is possible to estimate unaccounted perturbations that act on passive objects — old rocket stages, debris, and especially on thin membrane structures with a large surface area. For such objects, traditional models of perturbations (solar pressure, atmospheric resistance) work poorly and predict the orbit with an error.Moreover, up to 30% of objects in geostationary orbit, according to the author, are predicted with insufficient accuracy, and 10% are so inaccurate that they are often “lost” from the catalogs.
A new method allows to “capture” a constant disturbing acceleration along one pair of dimensions and then take it into account when calculating future motion. Thisimproves the accuracy of space debris catalogsand gives the opportunity to more confidently plan avoidance maneuvers for active satellites, including the RUDN apparatus itself (work is being carried out in the university in the field of small spacecraft).
The work was published in the authoritative international journal Symmetry (Q2) in May 2024, and the research results have already been tested on real data from geostationary satellites. In the experiment, the error in determining the maneuver parameters was a fraction of a percent, even when measurements were conducted almost at the very moment the engine was turned on.
Previously, specialists had to wait for several orbits to understand where the satellite flew after the maneuver. Our method provides an answer immediately based on one or two observations. This changes the rules of the game in the control of outer space.
Andrey Baranov
professor of the Engineering Academy of RUDN, doctor of physical and mathematical sciences, leading researcher at the M.V. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Development is especially relevant in light of the avalanche growth of satellite groups (Starlink, OneWeb, and others). The more objects in orbit, the more important every moment becomes to prevent collisions. The RUDN method is already ready for practical implementation in the space monitoring center.
Work performed with the support of grant RUDN №202235-2-000. The study was published in the journalSymmetry.
Please note; This information is raw content directly obtained from the information source. It represents an accurate report of what the source claims and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.