Published on: 2026-04-08
Source: United Nations – United Nations –
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The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has provoked a deep crisis that could gradually paralyze the entire global economy. This is stated by experts of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
Energy crisis
The situation, which worsened after the escalation at the end of February, led to a catastrophic reduction in maritime transport in the strait – by 95 percent: the number of transits fell from 130 ships per day in February to only six per day in March.
Breakdowns in the key energy artery immediately led to shortages in oil and gas supplies, as well as paralysed adjacent logistical systems, including maritime and air cargo transportation.
A sharp jump in fuel prices has triggered an increase in the cost of production and transportation of goods worldwide. UNCTAD notes that this primarily affects the transportation of oil and liquefied natural gas by tankers following routes through the Strait of Hormuz, while container shipments experience indirect pressure due to rising costs.
Global problem
Europe and South Asia are in the high-risk zone: they depend the most on Middle Eastern exports. If disruptions are prolonged, prices will remain high for an extended period.
The UNCTAD also notes that against the backdrop of geopolitical instability, the growth rates of global trade in goods in 2026 may slow to 1.5–2.5 percent compared to 4.7 percent in 2025. It is expected that global GDP growth will also decrease from 2.9 percent to 2.6 percent.
Developing countries under pressure
The situation is exacerbated by financial instability: investors are massively withdrawing capital from developing countries, which leads to weakening currencies and rising prices of critically important imports – food and fertilizers. This also means that countries face increasing costs for loans in international markets.
Under conditions where 3.4 billion people already live in countries where service debts exceed spending on medicine and education, UNCTAD warns of the possibility of a global debt crisis.
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