Published on: 2026-11-03
Source: United Nations – United Nations –
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November 2, 2026 Economic Development
Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions, fuel prices continue to rise, but this is happening unevenly. The biggest blow has hit developing countries. This is reported by experts from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
For example, from February 23 to August 31, 2026, diesel fuel prices in Nigeria jumped by approximately 83 percent, while in Ireland they rose by 9 percent. Gasoline prices in Myanmar increased by about 51 percent, and in Sweden by 3 percent.
For many families, the consequences of the “oil shock” go far beyond gas station prices. The increase in fuel costs leads to higher expenses for commuting to work and rising prices for everyday goods.
According to UNCTAD, the primary cause of the “shock” was global oil prices, and the way it spreads depends on the internal policies of countries and their dependence on energy imports.
Oil ‘roller coaster’
The conflict in the Middle East has led to disruptions in energy supplies and a sharp spike in oil prices. The price of the benchmark Brent crude oil rose above $120 per barrel, fell to around $70 in June, and then exceeded $100 again. For companies purchasing fuel, the period of cost reduction was short-lived.
As noted by UNCTAD, by September the cost of futures contracts for deliveries until the end of 2026 also exceeded 100 dollars per barrel – more than 30 dollars higher than the level observed before the conflict began.
Futures prices indicate that oil will remain expensive until the end of the year, which means that fuel and transportation costs for businesses and households are also likely to remain high.
A blow to the wallet
How does an oil shock affect the consumer at the gas station? The final price is influenced by taxes, subsidies, and pricing regulations in effect within the country. In addition, currency exchange rates affect the price of imported fuel.
According to the report, the sharpest increase in fuel prices affected developing economies. In 18 of the 25 countries studied, diesel fuel prices (in dollar terms) rose by more than 50 percent. In Nigeria, this figure increased by 82.7 percent, in Lebanon by 73.6 percent, in Peru by 66.7 percent, and in Moldova by 61.8 percent.
Gasoline prices have also soared sharply. The highest increase was recorded in Myanmar – 50.7 percent. In Nigeria, gasoline prices rose by 48.1 percent, and in Peru – by 40.6 percent.
Dependence on fuel imports
Economies heavily dependent on imported fuel face additional difficulties when oil prices rise: purchasing the necessary energy resources becomes more costly.
In 2023, the net fuel import accounted for a quarter of Cape Verde’s GDP and nearly one-fifth of Lebanon’s GDP. In Mauritania and Liberia, this figure exceeded 15 percent. These numbers reflect fuel import expenses minus export revenues relative to the size of each country’s economy.
Increasing fuel expenses leaves fewer funds for importing other goods, including food, medicines, and equipment. Governments with already tightly constrained budgets have fewer options to protect the population from rising prices.
Reduction of budgetary capabilities
UNCTAD cites results of earlier studies of developing economies, according to which a 25-cent increase in fuel prices per liter can lead to a reduction in household purchasing power by an average of more than 5 percent. At the same time, poorer families have fewer savings, which puts them in an even more difficult position.
Long-term changes are needed to reduce vulnerability to future shocks. UNCTAD calls for diversification of energy sources and, in particular, investments in affordable renewable energy sources. It is noted that in more than 90 percent of cases, such sources are cheaper than the most affordable new fossil fuel-based alternatives used for electricity generation.
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