Published on: 2026-09-30
Source: Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering –
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At the Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, a methodology for assessing emergent properties in the investment and construction sector has been developed. The study was conducted by an associate professor of the Department of Construction Economics and Housing and Communal Services, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Timur Ablyazov within the framework of the grant for conducting scientific research by the academic staff of SPbGASU in 2026.
The methodology allows for identifying and measuring effects that occur in construction when customers, contractors, and other market participants interact.
Emergent properties are those of a system that none of its individual components possess on their own. In construction, examples include the benefits of coordinated work among regular partners or, conversely, the chain transmission of non-payments from clients to contractors and suppliers. These effects influence the timelines and costs of construction; however, existing methods evaluate either individual organizations or the construction sector as a whole and do not show where the effect originated and how it is transmitted between levels.
During the study, criteria were developed that allow distinguishing a real interaction effect from random coincidences, scale effects, or a common external shock. The investment and construction sector was examined at three levels: projects and organizations, regional markets, and the construction sector as a whole. A mechanism for comparing effects across different levels, a diagnostic algorithm, and a system of 17 indicators combined into an integral emergent index were proposed.
The methodology was tested on data from Rosstat for 85 regions of Russia and on data from the unified information system’s procurement contract registry. Analysis of 4,961 contracts from customers in the Leningrad region for construction work showed that 55% of contracts are concluded in stable “customer–contractor” pairs. With random distribution of connections, this share would not exceed 5%.
Contracts with a contractor with whom the customer has already had experience are terminated one and a half times less often: 7.5% compared to 12% for new pairs. The difference remains when accounting for the contract price and the contractor’s experience. More than half of the value of the region’s contracts goes to St. Petersburg companies, so cooperation in construction is reasonable to assess at the agglomeration level rather than a separate region.
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