Published on: 2026-09-25
Source: Central Bank of Russia – Central Bank of Russia –
An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
The third publication in 2026 issue of the journal “Money and Credit”. The new issue includes five articles on how the market assesses inflation, why central bank actions affect industries and regions differently, how economists study financial cycles, and what experts think about the transformative power of artificial intelligence (AI). The authors propose new research approaches and summarize important discussions from recent years.
How to measure market inflation expectations
When analyzing the effectiveness of monetary policy and inflation risks, it is important to take into account the market’s inflation expectations, but to do so they need to be measured. Evgeny Tymchenko (HSE University) offers a method of combining inflation estimates embedded by the market into government bond prices into a single indicator. This helps understand how stable the inflation expectations of market participants are and to what extent they are anchored to the Bank of Russia’s target. According to calculations, by early 2026, the market’s long-term expectations were close to the target 4%.
Why changes in the key interest rate affect industries differently…
The change in the key interest rate affects different industries unevenly – the differences depend on the industry’s debt burden, its demand for loans, proximity to the end consumer, presence of regulated tariffs, and the speed of price revisions. Viktor Antonenko (HSE University) and Ivan Darovsky (Bank of Russia) show, that the most sensitive to the rate increase are construction, trade, manufacturing, and services, while the least sensitive are energy, water supply, and agriculture. At the same time, the overall effect of the rate increase remains anti-inflationary across all sectors.
…and to the regions
Another source of differences in the reaction to the key rate change is how concentrated the banking market is in the hands of a few players. Daniil Spiridonov (HSE) comes to the conclusion, that in Russian regions with a higher concentration of the banking market, loan rates for companies and investments respond more strongly to changes in the key rate in the short term, but no sustainable differences are seen over the course of a year.
Which indicators better describe financial cycles
Periods of economic boom are followed by slowdowns – but which indicators should be used to timely spot recession risks? A review by Viktor Vorozhtsov and Yulia Vymyatnina (European University at Saint Petersburg) summarizes Russian and foreign studies on how economists examine periods of growth and decline in lending and financial markets. The authors demonstrate that the set of indicators that best describe the financial cycle varies across countries, and there is still no unified methodology.
What AI will change in the economy
Alexander Eliseev and Ivan Krylov (Bank of Russia) tell about the research presented at a seminar held by the Bank of Russia, the New Economic School (NES), and the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE), which was dedicated to the impact of AI on the economy. Participants discussed how large language models help predict human behavior and macroeconomic indicators, and also touched on the influence of AI on society, economic growth, the labor market, inequality, the financial market, and monetary policy.
All articles in the issue are fully available on the website the magazine “Money and Credit”.
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