Published on: 2026-09-15
Source: United Nations – United Nations –
An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
September 15, 2026 Peace and Security
Worldwide, concerns have sharply increased regarding the possibility of a large-scale war. Over the past two years, in the perception of experts, it has transformed from a relatively distant threat into one of the most acute global risks. This is stated in a new UN report.
The study is based on responses from 1,300 representatives of governments, international organizations, civil society, the private sector, and academia from all regions of the world. Participants assessed 28 political, economic, environmental, social, and technological risks, including the likelihood of their occurrence, possible consequences, and the international community’s preparedness to confront them.
Compared to 2024, large-scale war has risen 16 positions in the ranking of the most imminent threats – this is the sharpest increase among all risks. More than a third of respondents – 36 percent – believe that its consequences could affect a significant portion of humanity within the next year, and 76 percent admit that this could happen within the next seven years.
Respondents also named large-scale war as one of the threats that the international community is least prepared for. It became the only global risk to enter the top six simultaneously according to four indicators: significance, temporal proximity, interconnectedness with other risks, and insufficient readiness to respond.
Overall, the perception of global risks has changed significantly over the past two years. While in 2024 the greatest concerns were environmental threats, misinformation, and pandemics, now geopolitical tensions, war, and the weakening of the rule of law have come to the forefront.
“The conclusions are sobering. Political risks have come to the forefront. The prospect of a large-scale war is perceived as a much more significant and much closer threat than two years ago,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in the foreword to the report.
“At the same time, the institutions from which a response is expected are perceived as less prepared to act,” he added.
In all regions, political risks are perceived as more significant
This shift in perception is evident across all seven regions involved in the study. Large-scale war and geopolitical tension ranked among the top ten most significant threats in every region, and in six of them – among the top five. In 2024, these risks were in the top five in only one region.
Weapons of mass destruction also made the top ten risks in Central and South Asia, Sub-Saharan African countries, and Oceania. In East and Southeast Asia, respondents expressed concern about a possible global financial crisis, the negative consequences of artificial intelligence development, and the concentration of power in the hands of technology companies. Risks related to AI also ranked among the top ten in Europe and North America.
At the same time, new pandemics and biological risks dropped out of the top ten in all regions. Only two years ago, they were still considered among the most significant risks in East and Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as in sub-Saharan African countries.
Respondents consider global threats to be interconnected
The report emphasizes that global threats do not exist in isolation from each other. Respondents view resource scarcity, economic fragmentation, disinformation, and the weakening of multilateral institutions as factors capable of increasing geopolitical tensions, which in turn raise the risk of large-scale war. The link between geopolitical tension and war proved to be the strongest among the 705 interconnections identified during the survey.
Special attention in the report is given to artificial intelligence. The risks associated with AI and other advanced technologies, as well as the concentration of power through technologies, are now perceived as much more serious than two years ago. At the same time, according to respondents, the multilateral system is least prepared for technological threats.
Despite changing perceptions, inaction in the fight against climate change is still seen as the most significant global risk. It ranks high in all regions, and a possible shortage of natural resources also causes serious concern in different parts of the world.
The authors warn: a decline in the rankings of certain environmental risks does not mean that the threats themselves have become less serious. What has changed primarily is the perception of their significance and urgency. However, the attention of the public and politicians affects resource allocation, and therefore problems that receive less attention may also lose necessary funding.
Joint actions of governments are considered the most effective response
The main obstacles to effective risk management identified by respondents were weak management or coordination mechanisms, lack of political consensus, as well as a deficit of trust and accountability. Other frequently mentioned barriers include incorrect prioritization, strong resistance from the public, political forces or business, and a shortage of data and information.
Eighty-six percent of respondents stated that the funding for mitigation and risk reduction measures is insufficient. The report explicitly names the lack of funding as an obstacle to countering hazardous natural phenomena and the potential collapse of multilateral institutions.
The UN emphasizes that the report reflects the perception of risks, not predictions of the future. However, perceptions of threats influence political decisions and the allocation of resources – and therefore can largely determine which crises the world will be able to prevent.
“And yet one conviction remains unchanged: respondents still consider joint actions by governments to be unquestionably the most effective means of preventing threats. No single country, company, or institution is capable of facing these risks alone,” emphasized the Secretary-General.
“The Global Risks Report for 2026 contains data that we must use to guide our decision-making. Our duty to current and future generations is to wisely use this knowledge and act while cooperation can still steer us onto a safer path. The choice is ours,” he said.
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