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Global HIV Response Efforts Are Losing Effectiveness Amid the Threat of a New Surge in Cases

Global HIV Response Efforts Are Losing Effectiveness Amid the Threat of a New Surge in Cases

Published on: 2026-07-28

Source: United Nations – United Nations –

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July 27, 2026 Healthcare

In 2025, the world again failed to meet the set targets: 1.2 million people contracted HIV, and 570 thousand died from AIDS-related illnesses. This is stated in a report presented on Monday at the 26th International AIDS Conference in Rio de Janeiro.

The authors of the United Nations Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) report warn: the reduction of international funding and the cutting of prevention programs create conditions for a new surge of the epidemic. According to UNAIDS estimates, without urgent measures, the number of new infections could exceed three million by 2030.

Although new infection and mortality rates are at their lowest levels in the past three decades, the global response to HIV remains extremely weak. Progress is uneven: in 2025, an increase in new cases was recorded in three regions and 21 countries. About nine out of 41 million people living with HIV are not receiving treatment. Nearly half of infected children did not have access to antiretroviral therapy.

Scientific breakthrough and lack of equal access
Seven countries have achieved an almost 80 percent reduction in new infections since 2010, and 11 countries have reached the 95-95-95 target, according to which 95 percent of people living with HIV should know their status, 95 percent of those diagnosed should receive antiretroviral therapy, and 95 percent of those receiving therapy should achieve viral load suppression.

Scientific advancements are paving the way for a revolution in prevention: monthly and semi-annual injections are already appearing on the market, and new drugs are undergoing late-stage trials.

“Scientific breakthroughs give us tools that previous generations could only dream of,” said UNAIDS Executive Director Winnie Byanyima. “But innovation without [equal] access is not innovation, it is evidence of injustice.”

According to the report, Brazil increased its coverage with preventive medications by 41 percent in just one year, Ethiopia and Uganda are expanding access through domestic and external financial sources, and South Africa is negotiating price reductions for injections.

Funding crisis
In 2025, global development aid decreased by 23 percent, hitting programs in the health sector and HIV response particularly hard. For many African countries with high morbidity rates, international funding accounted for up to 90 percent of the expenditures on response measures.

“The era of dependence on international aid is over,” Bianima stated, calling for urgent reform of the financial system and acceleration of debt restructuring so that governments can invest in the health, education, and future of their citizens.

Funding for HIV programs has fallen by 1.5 billion dollars—from 8.8 billion in 2024 to 7.3 billion in 2025. Prevention, especially in sub-Saharan African countries, was largely dependent on external funds: 80 percent of funding came from international aid. The cuts have already led to a sharp decline in treatment coverage: in some countries, services for key populations have decreased by 50–85 percent.

More than 55 countries reported plans to increase the volume of domestic funding for HIV prevention activities, including Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.

The escalation of criminalization and threats to human rights
At the same time, pressure on human rights is increasing worldwide. For the first time in years of observations, UNAIDS notes an increase in the criminalization of marginalized groups. In 2025, Burkina Faso and Niger introduced criminal liability for same-sex relations, and this year Senegal has tightened punishments. To date, 168 countries criminalize sex work, 152 criminalize possession of small amounts of drugs, 66 criminalize same-sex relations, and 14 criminalize transgender identity.

“It is impossible to defeat AIDS by criminalizing people living with HIV or those at risk,” Byanima said. “Human rights are a key element of a successful response to the epidemic.”

Chance for a break
Despite negative trends, in June 2026, 149 countries adopted a new Political Declaration on HIV and AIDS, aligned with the UNAIDS Strategy for 2026–2031. It includes providing treatment to 40 million people, access to prevention for 20 million, and reducing stigma, gender-based violence, and restrictive laws. If these commitments are fulfilled, an additional 3.2 million new infections and 1.3 million deaths could be prevented by 2030.

“Despite huge challenges, ending the AIDS epidemic is still achievable,” Byanima said. “The choice is clear: to retreat and allow the epidemic to resurge or to mobilize, reform systems, and achieve the main goal – to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.”

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