Published on: 2026-06-06
Source: Rosneft – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
The energy panel, organized as part of the PMEF-2026, concluded with the traditional oil price forecast for the coming year from its participants. This year, the vision was presented by Igor Sechin, the Minister of Energy of the Republic of Uzbekistan Jurabek Mirzamudov, former head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Nobuo Tanaka, and the president of the TOFS Group of Companies David Gadzhimirzaev.
According to Sechin, the determining factor for the medium-term market dynamics is the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz. “If you can tell me exactly how long the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz will last, it will be easier for us to determine the level of impact on the price from the loss of 16 million barrels per day,” he noted.
In his opinion, “if the restrictions (related to the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz – editor) are lifted now, then possibly, by the end of the year, the average price will reach the level of 95 to 96 dollars per barrel.”
“It will take about half a year to restore positive dynamics. And then, in a year, we will observe approximately 80-85 dollars per barrel. Because just to restore supplies requires significant time and investment. Thus, by the second half of 2027, probably, one can talk about returning to the fundamental market indicators. It seems to me that this will be a more objective approach to pricing,” said Igor Sechin.
At the same time, he also voiced expectations for another scenario of events development – in conditions where new sanction restrictions are imposed on Russian oil. “If 7 million barrels of Russian oil exports are added to the 16 million barrel restriction, then an additional 100 dollars will be added to the level of 150-160,” Sechin stated.
However, the authors of the new sanction proposals must understand, Igor Ivanovich believes, that from the specified volume of 7 million barrels, Russia will still preserve a significant part of the export.
“I doubt that the plan will be implemented the way they wanted. And the increased price level compensates for the shortfall in sanctioned volumes. Therefore, it is probably not necessary to step on the rake here, because the stick can cause you harm,” Sechin said.
“There are many risks. And taking into account that political decisions begin to form fundamental indicators – anything is possible. But we are ready for that. And I think that we compensate for a significant part of the restrictions that may be introduced. At the same time, what will be the cost of petroleum products at gas stations in California? That also needs to be considered,” he concluded in response to the question.
In turn, Nobuo Tanaka, former head of the IEA and a recognized expert in the energy sector, believes that as a result of a supply shortage, oil prices will most likely be very high in the coming months. “And I think it could reach a historical level — more than 170 dollars per barrel, and even higher, before it starts to decline. This is a very, very serious situation. And I believe that Russia will become a very important player in the context of supply increases,” Mr. Tanaka noted.
The Minister of Energy of Uzbekistan, Zhurabek Mirzamuhodov, in his response noted the necessity of forming stability. Answering the respective question, he did not rule out the return in the future of quotations to the level of 60 dollars per barrel.
David Gadzhiimirzaev also noted the difficulty in forecasting exact figures. According to him, the largest banks in the world, relying on the Middle Eastern crisis, predict a variation from 78 to 90 dollars per barrel, and considering various shocks, the forecast is 60–70 dollars. He emphasized that the price should not fall below 60 dollars per barrel.
Department of Information and Advertising
PJSC NK Rosneft
June 6, 2026
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